The Money Line Journal

Unit System Basics

Unit System Basics

Like most gamblers I track my results using a unit system. Below is a brief synopsis of how such a system works.

What is a unit system?

A unit system is a means of measuring sports wagering returns and losses. A unit is equivalent to a dollar amount that is directly proportionate to a bettors bankroll.

How do I organize a unit system?

First you must decide how much you are going to invest in sports wagering. After that decision is made you should set your unit size = to a percentage of your bankroll. I almost always set it at exactly 1% of my bankroll. For example, if you are willing to risk $10,000 total for college hoops season than my unit size would be $100 or 1x =$100.  Thus a 1x play would = $100, a 2x play would = $200, a 4x would = $400 ad infinitum.

How do I account in units?

I've always tracked my wagers based on what I am risking rather than what I am trying to win. Let's say you risk 2x (2 units) at standard juice (-110) on a game. If you win your bet than you gain +1.8x (1.8 units), if you lose your bet than you lose -2x (-2 units).

To find out how much real money you are up or down at any point in time just multiply your net unit gain/loss by your unit size. If you are up +10x for MLB season with a unit size of $100 then you are up $1000 (10 x 100) for the season. If you had set your unit size at 1% (1x=1%) then this gain would represent a 10% R.O.I. for the season.

What is the point of using a unit system?

There are many reasons to track your results in this manner:

- Calculation via units levels the playing field and allows for meaningful comparisons between gamblers at every point on the financial spectrum. For example lets say Rico has a $20 unit size and is up $200 for a season while Chuck has a $2000 unit size and is up $6000 for the year. Well, Chuck has certainly made more money than Rico, but technically Rico is having a much better year proportionately speaking as he is up 10x to Chuck's 3x.

- Units make accounting much easier. If you bet $5 or $10 a game you won't notice as much but trust me, once you start consistently having to account for lots of zeros you'll want an arbitrary unit of measure in place of actual dollars not only for ease of calculations but also for psychological reasons. Plus converting units to dollars involves nothing more than a little simple algebra. Net gain in units multiplied by the dollar amount of unit = net gain in dollars. Not that hard folks.

- Units also offer a degree of privacy. I hate to say it but most people inherently suck. They don't recognize gambling as anything other than a dangerous vice while simultaneously being nosy. If someone asks me how much I have riding on a game it is much easier to say 3 units than it is to say $X,XXX. I'd much rather get a look of a confusion rather than some nonsensical lecture from a random idiot about my "gambling problem".

Should I adjust my unit size as the season goes on?

There is no right or wrong answer here. Having a sliding unit scale certainly makes calculations a bit more complex and tedious. I personally have always waited until the end of sporting seasons to evaluate and adjust.  For example let's say after football season my bankroll has grown from $10,000 to $12,000. In this instance I'd probably keep my unit size for basketball at 1%, but instead  of being worth $100 my unit would now equal $120 due to the increased size of my bankroll. Sort of like quarterly compounded interest, I suppose.

My unit size is smaller than the other gamblers, Does this make me less of a man?

No son, but it probably means you are poorer. In all seriousness though don't worry about how much other people are betting. Most people who claim to bet big are either lying or betting more than they can afford. If you consistently win without spending your capital gains then you will be betting large shortly anyways.

2007-2008 Prospectus

2007 Wagering Plans and Procedures

I hate this procedural bullshit, but it's a necessary evil due to the site being brand new. This article should give everyone a clear idea of how the next year is going to unfold here.

Wagering Schedule

College Football (Week 1 - Bowl Games)

NFL (Week 1 - Super Bowl)

College  Hoops (January 3rd - Final Four)

NBA (NBA Playoffs)

MLB (Opening Day - July 31st)

Golf (4 Majors)

In the past I have wagered on whatever I wanted, whenever I wanted, but this year I am outlining a wagering schedule and sticking to it. It's not that I don't love wagering on early season college hoops, who doesn't love day basketball in Maui on a crisp November afternoon, but trying to focus on four different things at once just doesn't pay, so I am electing to hold off on hoops until football has wound down.

Record Tracking and Pick Posting

Every single wager I make will be posted at my forum, the rudius forum, and therx forum immediately after I place my bets. Posting identical selections on three forums is overkill, but there will come a day when someone decides to question the validity of my record, and I will be able to strike any such accusations down with an iron hammer. I will also try to post my selections on the front page of the website as often as possible. I will not be logging results in a tabular format as I did on my old site as it was way too time consuming. If you want to see the picks behind the records then you'll have to surf through the forums.

Write Ups

Just because writing 4 paragraph diatribes on why a wager is potent is the custom at Covers doesn't mean it will be so on my site. Unless you own a crystal ball trying to predict something as open ended as a sporting event is a fool's errand. Sometimes I will post detailed insight and analysis into why I am picking a team, sometimes I won't, and other times I will post completely satirical write-ups that mock the entire concept completely. It will vary from week to week.

Money Management

In an effort to tighten things up I am going to limit myself to plays of only three sizes this season as opposed to the 1-10x scale I grew up on. Unit size will be set to bankroll so that plays of 1x = 3%, 2x = 6%, and 3x = 9%. If I had to guess I'd say at least 85% of my plays will be of the 1x variety so I will be essentially flat betting save for the rare occasions when an extra special play comes about. P.S. - As of 9/17/2007 I am altering this system. I am going to a 1x-6x scale with:

1x = 1.5% of initial bankroll

2x = 3%

3x= 4.5%

4x = 6%

5x = 7.5%

6x = 9%

The 1-3x system was just way too restrictive. This allows me to take smaller shots at juicy Moneylines like the Chargers play that lost last night.  All current records have been adjusted to reflect these changes.

Goals

Last year I smashed my financial goals going berserk to the tune of a 90% return on investment. As much as I'd love to do that well again, I am a realistic person and can only assume that some bad variance is headed my way. In 2007-2008 I will gladly take anything over 50%, but will ultimately accept any result, including a negative return, that results from sound wagering selections.

That's all I've got. I've never been more prepared for a season in my life, and while that does not ensure success, I am looking forward to tracking my progress on this new site noinetheless. Best of luck to everyone this year.

2006-2007 Year in Review

2006-2007 Year in Review

I am going to keep this short as I consider dwelling on the past to be an idiots endeavor.  2006-2007 was, in spite of many mistakes,  a banner year for my wagering career.

NFL +$8,054

Even though my NFL numbers were absolutely gaudy especially when you factor in the fluky Colts future and the contest winnings, I still will always look back on this season as a huge lost opportunity. I spent weeks 8-14 sitting in the Top 5 of the Carib contest with the $75,000 first prize right within my grasp, and I couldn't close the deal. I'm not sure if it was the fact that one of my direct competitors in the Top 5 was the guy I consider to be my mentor or simply the shear volume of prize money involved, but either way I faded down the stretch and subsequently blew a chance at an absurd score. 64% winners and an 80% return over 6 months is still pretty good though.

NCAAF -$4,512

What a disgusting number that is. What can I say though? For most of the season I was hovering right around even until I lost a few big ones down the stretch. Then I began bowl season on a 1-7 run and chose to throw up the white flag prematurely rather than battle it out. Had I hung around for the rest of bowl season I would have certainly regained about half of that deficit.  Ultimately though I forced WAY too many big plays, played too many games in general, and managed my money like a meth addict throughout most of the year. It's tough to win doing those things.

NCAAB +$2,725

College hoops was a total roller coaster ride for me. I was up huge halfway through February only to give it all back over a dreadful two week stretch that featured a handful of shit losses. Luckily I was able to get hot during Rounds 2-4 of the NCAA tourney playing everything larger than average, and that is where most of the profits came from.  I think they key to my success in college buckets both this year and in the future is to avoid making plays until after football has wound down. As much as I love the preseason NIT and the Maui Invite these early season, non conference games always seem to leave me in a hole.

NBA +$4,360

I only made 63 bets the entire NBA season and most of them were during the playoffs. This number figures to decrease next year as well since I am never playing another NBA total ever again after the Donaghy scandal. The profit really came mostly from my playoff series bets. I had Utah over Houston and Chicago over Miami in Round 1, Utah over Golden St and San Antonio over Phoenix in Round 2, and most importantly Cleveland over Detroit in the Conference Finals. It's not hard to make to make a lot of money when you go 5-0 on your big wagers over a month's time.

MLB -$1,336

I just couldn't get into bases this year. I played a bit in April, a decent amount in May, and for most of June, but I really never got much going. At one point in mid-June I was up a decent chunk of change until I went on a 16 game losing streak which put me into the red for the season. In any sport but baseball that would be a losing streak for the ages, but considering I play mostly long dogs, it's really not that mathematically unlikely. This number could change depending on what happens with the Rockies in the NL West and with the contest I am in and will be updated accordingly.

Miscellaneous +$198

With it being a non Olympic year the only random sport I dabbled in was golf and I actually came close to hitting a few enormous outrights. Ultimately though I only showed a miniscule profit, but considering that a) I don't know shit about golf and b) I only played the four majors, I am more than happy with the result.

Final Result +$8,989

When I am looking back at my results ten years from now the 2006-2007 will probably fall on the right side of the bell curve. It'd be unrealistic to expect results this good every single year. At the same time, I did this well with tons of leaks in my approach that are easily repairable, so who really knows. I definitely have a nice margin for error heading into 2007-2008, not that I plan on using it.

Wagering Terminology

Wagering Terminology

I use these terms all of the time in my writing so if you want any clue as to what is going on, Study Up.

Action - Having money on a game.

ATS - Short for against the spread. You will often see handicappers refer to at team's record ATS.

Buying the Hook - Buying an extra half point on a spread. If a team is a +6.5 point underdog some books will allow you to "buy the hook" up to +7.  Of course they charge you a significant amount of juice to do this. I never, ever buy hooks.

Chalk - The favorite in the game, the team laying points on the spread.

Cover - A point spread victory. If I have Chicago +5 points and they lose 20-17, my bet still covers the spread, and I win even though Chicago technically lost.

Dime - Slang for a $1000 wager. People who bet this amount often are referred to as 'dime players'.

Dog - The team that is expected to lose a sporting event, the team getting points on the spread. See underdog.

Down On - Being down on something means you have action on that thing. I am down on Tennessee to win the 07-08 NCAA Mens Basketball National Title.

Even Money - A rare bet where juice is not involved. With even money bets you risk 1 to win 1.

Fade - To bet against something or someone.

Favorite - The team that is expected to win a sporting event, the team laying points. See Chalk.

Futures - Bets in advance on long term events such as who will the win the Super Bowl or World Series.

Handicapper - Someone who breaks down ATS betting options using statistics, trends, and models with the hopes of finding an edge. Even though I bet on sports everyday, I do not fancy myself a handicapper.

Handicapping - Attempting to predict the outcome of a game, final score and all.

Hedging - Protecting an existing bet with a second bet, Suppose you have a futures' bet on Seattle to win the Super Bowl, if they get to the Super Bowl then you could bet on their opponent and ensure a profit. Bets on individual games can also be hedged either with a 2nd half bet or via live betting. This is an advanced technique.

Hook - A half of a point on a betting line.

Juice - The reason Las Vegas hotels are so immaculate, this is the percentage of your wager that the house (the book) automatically takes. For instance if you bet $100 on a game at 10% juice (-110) and your bet wins, then you get paid $90 (plus you get your initial initial stake back).

Laying the Points - Betting on the favorite and giving up the points (according to the spread). If Cleveland is favored by 5 points than they must win the game by more than 5 points for people betting on them to win.

Line - The current odds or point spread for a game. The line for Ohio St vs Florida in the National Title game is currently Ohio St -8 over Florida.

Linesmaker - The person who is responsible for setting the spreads for every sporting event.

Middle - Sometimes when you hedge a bet with a 2nd half bet you can win both your original bet and the second half bet. This is called hitting the middle. This is tough to do.

Money Line - A bet on the outright result of a sporting event. No point spreads involved. With money line odds, the favorite might be -150 and the underdog +140.  If you bet the favorite you must bet $150 to win $100. If you bet the underdog you must wager $100 to win $140.

Nickel - A $500 sports wager.

Off the board - Usually listed as OTB at most books. You'll see this when a sports book temporarily removes a line from play in order to reevaluate their number. An injury is usually responsible for a game going OTB.

Opening Line - The original line that is posted for every sporting event.

Outright - An outright victory is when a team wins the actual sporting event itself without help from a point spread. Usually this term is used when discussing underdogs

Over - When the total points scored by both teams in a game is more than the set total for that game then the game has gone 'over'.

Parlay - If you parlay two or more bets than every single bet you parlay must win in order for you to get paid. I haven't played a parlay in years and likely never will again.

Pick Em - When neither team is favored in a game it is consider a pick em contest. These are becoming more and more rare for whatever reason.

Point Spread - A number set by the sports books in an attempt to create equal action on both sides of a game.

Price - A fancy term for the odds or point spread on a betting option.

Push - A gaming tie. If Indy is -3 to win against Cincy and Indy wins the game 20-17 then the game pushes and both Indy and Cincinnati bettors are returned their initial stakes.

Sharp - Most sports books define a sharp player as someone who consistently makes money wagering on sports.

Side - A bet on either the under dog or the favorite with or against the spread.

Steam - A very rapid shift in a sports betting line in one direction.

Taking the Points - Betting on the underdog. If you bet on San Diego as a 4 point underdog then you can win your bet if San Diego wins the game outright or loses the game by less than 4 points.

Teaser - Similar to a parlay only the books give you six extra points per side. I don't waste my time with these either.

Totals Wager - A bet on the amount both teams will combine to score in a game. You can either bet under or over a total.

Tout - Someone who sells sports gambling advice. 99.9% of these guys are nothing more than used car salesman. Never in my life will I purchase sports picks.

Under - The opposite of an over. If the total on a SD/IND football game is 48, you would take the under if you think both teams will combine to score less than 48 points.

Underdog - The team that is supposed to lose a sporting event, the team getting points against the spread.

Wager - Betting money on a sporting event