Rather than posting my standard NFL weekly ATS opinions, I am instead going to try and forecast two days in advance the Week 8 selections and write ups of ESPN.com's Bill Simmons. This is no small task. Getting inside the head of a guy whose 2006 selections were nearly better than that of his own wife will not be easy, but I am going to give it a shot nevertheless.
Pittsburgh -4 over Cincinnati
I loved the email I got during last Sunday nights game from Vinnie in Hoboken, New Jersey. ("Hey Yo, Bill, Is it just me or is Mike Tomlin a dead ringer for Omar Epps?")
Couldn't agree more Vinnie. In fact when The Program 2 goes straight to DVD in a couple of years and Omar Epps declines to reprise his role as Darnell Jefferson to instead focus on a pilot for the WB, Mike Tomlin has to be the next guy the producers call. (Insert complimentary rant about how good of a job Mike Tomlin is doing with the team to cover up obvious New England born racism)
Buffalo +3 over New York Jets
Wait, wait, the Jets are favored?? Against another NFL team?? There is no way I take the Jets here since I blindly hate Eric Mangini because Bill Belichick also hates Eric Mangini for succeeding as an NFL coach quicker than he was able to. Besides, I need more Trent Edwards in my life.
Cleveland -3 over St. Louis
The 2007 St Louis Rams have to be responsible for more fantasy football related suicides than the rest of the teams in the league combined. Good news for Bulger, Jackson, and Holt owners though. Help is on the way. The Rams have a bye in Week 9. Zing. On a more serious note 3 points is not nearly enough for an 0-7 Rams team going against surprising Cleveland. They are only one game behind the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC North. Just sayin....
Chicago -5 over Detroit
Anyone else notice that Rex Grossman was no where to be seen when Kyle Orton, Brian Griese, and the rest of the Bears were celebrating after the game winning drive. It's almost as if Chicago is trying to deny he ever existed in the first place. It's working. Not even God's team can get lucky two weeks in a row. As long as Rod Marinelli doesn't hire (insert random 80's movie bully here) to take out Devin Hester's knee in the semi-finals of the All Valley Karate tournament the Bears will be just fine.
Carolina +6.5 over Indy
Peyton Manning getting less than a touchdown against David Carr. This is definitely this week's "Too Easy Game". Plus Indy will be looking ahead to New England next week so I am definitely taking Carolina even though I will ignore the very same angle later in this column.
New York Giants -10 over Miami (Wembley Stadium)
How ironic is it that in the first ever NFL regular season game played outside of North America the Dolphins will feature a starting QB with loads of experience playing in Europe. Still, as I mentioned in last week's column, the Giants are now officially a Ewing-Theory team and that certainly means that they will cover this spread.
Tennessee -7 over Oakland
The Kerry Collins comeback tour has officially begun and quite frankly I am psyched about it. (Insert not so thinly veiled Kerry Collins drunk driving joke). Besides, was Lane Kiffin even born the last time Kerry Collins won a road start in the NFL? Didn't think so. I'll take the team with the coach who has already gone through puberty thank you very much.
Minnesota +1 over Philadelphia
Jimmy from my West Coast fantasy league offered me Larry Johnson, Terrell Owens, his first born son, a brand new BMW 1 series, and $10,000 cash for Adrian Peterson and I said no. Adrian Peterson!!!! Wow!!!! In fact Adrian Peterson on my west coast fantasy team is all the reason I need to drop a bomb on the Vikings on Sunday, other relevant factors be damned.
Houston +10 over San Diego
As my cousin Sal put it, Can you really lay 10 points of chalk with a home team whose stadium might burn down before kick off? Couldn't agree more and is it just me or did anyone else notice that the fires started getting out of hand roughly around the same time that the Chargers fleeced* the Dolphins in the Chris Chambers trade. (More on this later)
*Okay I am breaking character for a minute. The Dolphins did not get ripped off in this trade. Not even close. They dumped an over paid, overrated wide out for a 2nd round draft choice in a year where they were going no where anyways. Now they have an extra pick next year and can play their young receivers. What's the problem??
New Orleans -3 over San Francisco
We are only two more 24 carry 63 yard 0 TD games away from Frank Gore pulling a Last Boy Scout on Trent Dilfer and the 49ers offensive line. Frankly, I'm excited about it.
Tampa Bay -4 over Jacksonville
My buddy House said it best during our weekly Sunday night NFL discussion "Are you really ready to back Quinn Gray making his first start on the road against a Tampa Bay team that just spent all week getting verbally dismantled by Jon Gruden and Monte Kiffin?" Yea, me neither.
Green Bay +3 over Denver
I would have picked Denver here, but I can't go against Brett Favre on Monday night. So what if he is only 17-15 outright all time for his career on MNF. You just don't go against Brett Favre on MNF. Don't do it. Don't. I am warning you. DO NOT BET AGAINST A FUTRE HOF QB ON MNF. EVER. It is the most dangerous gambling angle of them all.
AND Finally
New England -16.5 over Washington
At this point it isn't even a question of New England being the best NFL team of all time. That has been definitively answered over the course of the first seven weeks of the season with blow out wins over the league's elite (Buffalo, New York, Miami, and Cleveland just to name a few)
We have officially reached some next level crap (can't say shit I work for ESPN remember) with the 2007 Patriots. I mean if I started calling Bill Belichick God, Tom Brady Jesus, and Randy Moss John the Baptist, would it even be that big of a stretch?? The guys are averaging 40PPG in the NFL for Bradyssake. This theory even explains the wild fires in Southern California. It is simply Old Testament Belichick punishing the Chargers/Dolphins for collaborating on a blatantly unfair trade with the hopes of eventually derailing the Pats perfect season in the playoffs. When Miami gets destroyed during hurricane season it will all make sense.
Anyways, Las Vegas is totally screwed. They are either stupid or crazy. This will probably be the end of sports betting as we know it. They just can't set the lines high enough for this team. If gambling were legal, I would have already rolled over my daughter's college fund 7 times on the Pats and would continue to do so until the sports books finally waived the white flag and stopped setting lines for Patriots games.
I've already written three times as much about the Pats game as I did for any other game this week, so I'll end with an email from Danny in Berkshire, MA. ("Bill, I just jerked it to the You Tube video of the Randy Moss shoulder catch. Twice.")
Yup, these are my readers.
My actual, early NFL ATS opinions for this week are: St. Louis, Detroit, Carolina, Miami, Oakland, Philly, Cincy, Jets, Houston, Tampa Bay, San Fran, Washington, and Denver.