The Money Line Journal

Volatility Anyone??

If you ever hear a sports bettor talk about how he wins every day, or every weekend, or every month ad infinitum there are two possibilites.  You are either talking to a GOD or a liar.

It is IMPOSSIBLE to constantly win over the short run in this business.  There is just too much luck, variance, and bad officiating to overcome.  It always amuses me how the touts proudly trumpet their short term luck.  I mean who really cares.  I have lost money 6 out of 9 weekends so far this football season, and I am still up 8K for the year as I type this.  The graph below illustartes just how volatile the past 9 weeks have been for me:

Express Elevator to Hell, Going Down

My 2007 football season reads like a theme park attraction, and anyone who has ever been to Six Flags knows what direction that roller coaster is headed next. It's inevitable really.  I just hope the angle of descent isn't so steep that I vomit all over the guy in front of me.

Anyways, I just thought I'd share that.  Not exactly ground breaking stuff.  Anyone who has been around the block in this business knows how up and down it can be.  I did make a few meaningful observations in reviewing my numbers, but I am going to keep those to myself for now.  If you pay attention closely enough you will notice a slight adjustment in how I handle my wagers. 

Pacers +2.5 -105 over Washington Wiz (Risking $630 to win $600)

76ers +7 +105 over Toronto Raptors (Risking $380 to win $400)

If basketball season was in full force I'd be on the Pacers bigger and would also be playing Memphis and New Jersey

Welcome to the National Fixed League

I flat refuse to discuss last nights game.  Seriously, not one word about Jay Cutler's idiotic fumble at the 1,

or the totally suspect and absolutely horrific holding call on Brandon Marshall that brought back a HUGE run,

or the two absurd bombs that were completed against "shutdown" corners,

or the ludicrous play calling that occurred on Denver's final drive of the game,

or the fact that Dre Bly is an overrated, shit talking piece of garbage,

or the verbal fellatio Tony Kornheiser was handing out that was so egregious I had to mute the sound on my television halfway through the second quarter because I too started believing that Brett Favre is in the same discussion as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as far as best QBs in the NFL go. 

Fucking Bullshit.

Anyways, the NBA season tips off tonight.  My initial plan coming in was to lay off hoops entirely until football season concluded.  Then I made two very important realizations.  1) I have a severe gambling problem and 2) If I don't play hoops early, I won't have the slightest clue what is going on come January and thusly won't be able to make my customary early Spring run.  Tonight's early season donation:

Portland +12.5 +110 over San Antonio Spurs (.8x)

I'm not sure the 12.5 will even be enough for the 1st quarter let alone the entire contest.

Halloween Hangover

Yesterday sucked.  My two strongest plays weren't even close, and the rest of the losses were a bi-product of a severe lapse in discipline that was caused by my decision to not fully settle on Sunday's moves until 11Am that very morning.  Thankfully Saturday's profits were large enough to offset this dumbass move.  For tonight I am going with:

Denver -3 -101 over Green Bay (2.4x)

I am not sure this play really has a shot.  Betting against Brett Favre on MNF has to be one of the dumbest things a bettor can do right??  I mean the guy has won 53% of his MNF starts for his career so surely you'd have to be legitimately insane to go against him in this type of spot.

Ultimately, I don't really care either way.  Win or lose the suns cosmic rays will be able to heal my pain.

Sunday NFL

Barf. Way too much action on a marginal card.

Carolina +7 -104 (2x)

Philly -1 +107 (2x)

St Louis Rams +3 -111 over Cleveland Browns (1.5x)

Dolphins +10 EV over New York Giants (2x)

New York Jets -3 +110 over Buffalo (1.5x)

Cincy Bengals +4 over Pittsburgh (1.5x)

San Francisco +2.5 -108 over New Orleans (2.4x)

Money Line Cares

Instead of watching the Va Tech-Boston College game last night, I attended a silent charity auction.  I could not have picked a better night to imitate a philanthropist as I really would not have handled the Va Tech collapse very well if I had seen it live and in color.

When my roommate text messaged me that Boston College had recovered the late onside kick I immediately went over to every item I was currently winning on and outbid myself using a pseudonym and fake phone number so I wouldn't get stuck holding the bag.  It just goes to show that betting thousands of dollars on sporting events doesn't preclude one from being a cheap fuck.

This college card is going to bankrupt me.  Just way too much action.  What am I supposed to do though?? Not Gamble?? 

Fresno St +3 -102 over Boise St(1x),  Fresno St ML +137 (.69x)

As long as no Boise St player proposes marriage to a cheerleader after their win tonight, I will accept this loss with class and dignity.

Oregon ML -141 over USC (1.5x), Oregon -3EV (1.5x)

The last time I bet on an underdog USC team they waxed Oklahoma by 36 in the Orange Bowl.  Hard to believe that was almost four years ago.  I was a losing player back then, but at least I was getting laid consistently.  My gut feeling is that Oregon will out gain and outplay USC, but lose thanks to dumb penalties and turnovers. Can't Wait!!

Uconn +4 +102 over South Florida (3x)

I am sick of hearing Louisville fans, players, and coaches alike complain about the fair catch play from last Friday's game.  Yes it was one of the worst calls I have ever seen, BUT the refs made an equally bad call a few sequences later when Uconn didn't get credit for a blatant fumble six TD on a punt that caromed off a Louisville gunner. The refs wouldn't even review it even though it was a reviewable play.  These things tend to even out.  Unless of course your name is Money Line.

Arizona St ML -145 over Cal (1.25x),  Arizona St -3 +104 (1.25x)

This line is totally disrespectful to Zona St.  Cal has a ton of speed, but not much else, and their quarterback play in particular has been pretty awful.  Them losing 3 straight too good Pac 10 teams should surprise nobody.

NC St +3.5 -104 over Virginia (2x)

Harrison Beck isn't the starter anymore, but you can still follow his career at his very own website .

Arizona +3.5 -102 over Washington (2x)

The Huskies defense is a total joke.  It would have to be for me to back this totally lame Wildcat squad.

Miss St +13.5 +101 over Kentucky (2x)

Looks like Saturday night will be another one of those nights where I lie in bed unable to sleep wondering what my life would be like if I could stop myself from betting on Mississippi St.  I just don't see how Kentucky motivates itself for this game coming off two huge ones with LSU and Florida.

Ball St +14 -101 over Illinois  (1.5x)

Pretty much the same thought process as above.  I am playing this one smaller because I have major concerns over Ball St's ability to stop the Illinois rushing attack.

Texas A&M +3 over Kansas (1.5x)

Is it just me or has Mangini lost some weight since I posted his picture on the site a couple weeks ago?? 

Indiana +8.5 +101 over Wisconsin (1.5x)

Backing Indiana on the road in the Big 10 has been a losing proposition for my entire lifetime.  I just don't see what really separates these two on the field this year.  Football tradition does not cover spreads.  Kudos to Doc Bob for an extra point and a half of line value.

Kent St ML +133 over Central Michigan (1x)

My Kent St Golden Eagle boner continues to rage hard.

Penn St +3.5 over Ohio St  (1x)

Kind of surprised this ended up being one of my smaller plays, but the Nitnany Lions are another uber trendy upset pick. 

Thursday Night Chalk

Va Tech -3 -107 over Boston College  (1x)

MAX. EFFORT. SPOT.

Other than that I am really not to enthusiastic about this play.  Thus the small amount risked.  Back tomorrow with the rest of the Week 9 college selections.

The Sports Guys Friday NFL Picks Two Days Early

Rather than posting my standard NFL weekly ATS opinions, I am instead going to try and forecast two days in advance the Week 8 selections and write ups of ESPN.com's Bill Simmons.  This is no small task.  Getting inside the head of a guy whose 2006 selections were nearly better than that of his own wife will not be easy, but I am going to give it a shot nevertheless.

Pittsburgh -4 over Cincinnati

I loved the email I got during last Sunday nights game from Vinnie in Hoboken,  New Jersey. ("Hey Yo, Bill, Is it just me or is Mike Tomlin a dead ringer for Omar Epps?")

Couldn't agree more Vinnie.  In fact when The Program 2 goes straight to DVD in a couple of years and Omar Epps declines to reprise his role as Darnell Jefferson to instead focus on a pilot for the WB,  Mike Tomlin has to be the next guy the producers call.  (Insert complimentary rant about how good of a job Mike Tomlin is doing with the team to cover up obvious New England born racism)

Buffalo +3 over New York Jets

Wait, wait, the Jets are favored?? Against another NFL team??  There is no way I take the Jets here since I blindly hate Eric Mangini because Bill Belichick also hates Eric Mangini for succeeding as an NFL coach quicker than he was able to.  Besides, I need more Trent Edwards in my life.

Cleveland -3 over St. Louis

The 2007 St Louis Rams have to be responsible for more fantasy football related suicides than the rest of the teams in the league combined.  Good news for Bulger, Jackson, and Holt owners though.  Help is on the way. The Rams have a bye in Week 9. Zing.  On a more serious note  3 points is not nearly enough for an 0-7 Rams team going against surprising Cleveland.  They are only one game behind the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC North.  Just sayin....

Chicago -5 over Detroit

Anyone else notice that Rex Grossman was no where to be seen when Kyle Orton, Brian Griese, and the rest of the Bears were celebrating after the game winning drive.  It's almost as if Chicago is trying to deny he ever existed in the first place.  It's working.  Not even God's team can get lucky two weeks in a row.  As long as Rod Marinelli doesn't hire (insert random 80's movie bully here) to take out Devin Hester's knee in the semi-finals of the All Valley Karate tournament the Bears will be just fine.   

Carolina +6.5 over Indy

Peyton Manning getting less than a touchdown against David Carr.  This is definitely this week's "Too Easy Game".  Plus Indy will be looking ahead to New England next week so I am definitely taking Carolina even though I will ignore the very same angle later in this column.

New York Giants -10 over Miami (Wembley Stadium)

How ironic is it that in the first ever NFL regular season game played outside of North America the Dolphins will feature a starting QB with loads of experience playing in Europe.   Still, as I mentioned in last week's column, the Giants are now officially a Ewing-Theory team and that certainly means that they will cover this spread.

Tennessee -7 over Oakland

The Kerry Collins comeback tour has officially begun and quite frankly I am psyched about it. (Insert not so thinly veiled Kerry Collins drunk driving joke).  Besides, was Lane Kiffin even born the last time Kerry Collins won a road start in the NFL?  Didn't think so.  I'll take the team with the coach who has already gone through puberty thank you very much.

Minnesota +1 over Philadelphia

Jimmy from my West Coast fantasy league offered me Larry Johnson, Terrell Owens, his first born son, a brand new BMW 1 series, and $10,000 cash for Adrian Peterson and I said no.  Adrian Peterson!!!! Wow!!!!  In fact Adrian Peterson on my west coast fantasy team is all the reason I need to drop a bomb on the Vikings on Sunday, other relevant factors be damned.

Houston +10 over San Diego

As my cousin Sal put it, Can you really lay 10 points of chalk with a home team whose stadium might burn down before kick off?  Couldn't agree more and  is it just me or did anyone else notice that the fires started getting out of hand roughly around the same time that the Chargers fleeced* the Dolphins in the Chris Chambers trade.  (More on this later)

*Okay I am breaking character for a minute.  The Dolphins did not get ripped off in this trade.  Not even close. They dumped an over paid, overrated wide out for a 2nd round draft choice in a year where they were going no where anyways.  Now they have an extra pick next year and can play their young receivers. What's the problem??

New Orleans -3 over San Francisco

We are only two more 24 carry 63 yard 0 TD games away from Frank Gore pulling a Last Boy Scout on Trent Dilfer and the 49ers offensive line.  Frankly, I'm excited about it.

Tampa Bay -4 over Jacksonville

My buddy House said it best during our weekly Sunday night NFL discussion "Are you really ready to back Quinn Gray making his first start on the road against a Tampa Bay team that just spent all week getting verbally dismantled by Jon Gruden and Monte Kiffin?"  Yea, me neither.

Green Bay +3 over Denver

I would have picked Denver here, but I can't go against Brett Favre on Monday night.  So what if he is only 17-15 outright all time for his career on MNF.  You just don't go against Brett Favre on MNF.  Don't do it. Don't. I am warning you. DO NOT BET AGAINST A FUTRE HOF QB ON MNF. EVER. It is the most dangerous gambling angle of them all.

AND Finally

New England -16.5 over Washington

At this point it isn't even a question of New England being the best NFL team of all time.  That has been definitively answered over the course of the first seven weeks of the season with blow out wins over the league's elite (Buffalo, New York, Miami, and Cleveland just to name a few)

We have officially reached some next level crap (can't say shit I work for ESPN remember)  with the 2007 Patriots.   I mean if I started calling Bill Belichick God, Tom Brady Jesus, and Randy Moss John the Baptist, would it even be that big of a stretch?? The guys are averaging 40PPG in the NFL for Bradyssake.  This theory even explains the wild fires in Southern California.  It is simply Old Testament Belichick punishing the Chargers/Dolphins for collaborating on a blatantly unfair trade with the hopes of eventually derailing the Pats perfect season in the playoffs. When Miami gets destroyed during hurricane season it will all make sense.

Anyways, Las Vegas is totally screwed.  They are either stupid or crazy.  This will probably be the end of sports betting as we know it. They just can't set the lines high enough for this team.  If gambling were legal, I would have already rolled over my daughter's college fund 7 times on the Pats and would continue to do so until the sports books finally waived the white flag and stopped setting lines for Patriots games. 

I've already written three times as much about the Pats game as I did for any other game this week, so I'll end with an email from Danny in Berkshire, MA. ("Bill, I just jerked it to the You Tube video of the Randy Moss shoulder catch. Twice.")

Yup, these are my readers.

My actual, early NFL ATS opinions for this week are: St. Louis, Detroit, Carolina, Miami, Oakland, Philly, Cincy, Jets, Houston, Tampa Bay, San Fran, Washington, and Denver. 

That's All I Get For 1.3 Million?

Quinn Gray was 9/24 for 56 yards and 2Ints in relief of David Garrard last night.  Complete ineptitude at the small price of 1.3 million dollars a season.  Backup quarterback work is great if you can find it.

NCAAF: 5-5, -$2,341 NFL: 3-3, $-386 Losses enlarged to emphasize that I do not win every weekend.

NFL Weekly opinion column will be posted manana.

"When You Rich You Don't Write Checks"

Jacksonville +3 +105 over the mighty Peyton Manning (2.4x)

Not only is Peyton Manning my favorite football player, he is also my favorite actor.  These two facts have made it very hard for me to fade the Colts over the last few years.  If I valued my own health and sanity I most certainly wouldn't be making this play, but since I really don't care very much about either, I will take an above average shot with the live Monday night home dog.  This was actually going to be an even larger play until I woke up this morning and saw an avalanche of touts trumpeting the Jags as an upset special.

In honor of Randy Moss rejuvenating his career I am posting the following You Tube clip.  It is an awesome compilation of old highlights, satirical rap lyrics, and hilarious sound bytes of Randy being Randy.  Make sure to watch it all the way through as the end is the best part.

Sunday Bloody Sunday

My NFL picks have been totally pedestrian thus far this year.  I'm sure the following losers won't help my case.

Plays

Arizona +8.5 -110 over Washington (1.5x)

I am not in love with this selection, but this could be my last chance to back Tim Rattay as a starter.  Can't pass it up.

Buffalo +3 -109 over Baltimore (2x)

Standard super ugly contrarian NFL look.

Oakland -2.5 +100 over Kansas City Chiefs (2.4x)

I actually like this Raiders team, and I strongly dislike Kansas Shitty, so this one is a good fit for me.

New York Jets +6.5 +100 over Cincy Bengals  (2x)

Lost the last two weeks with the Jets.  Most gamblers would not have the stomach to fire a third bullet with a squad this bad.  I am not most gamblers.

Denver +3.5 -106 over Pittsburgh Steelers  (2.4x)

Just a fishy line.  Really should be Pitt -5 in my opinion.  I have no clue how Denver keeps this one close, but I sure hope they do.

Passes

Miami +16.5 - I really think they cover, but I need a week off from the Patriots

Philly -5.5 - The Bears are toast. Westbrook should get off nicely.

I will be on Jacksonville on Monday, but have not decided on an amount yet.