The Money Line Journal

College Football Losers

I really feel like this entire card was setup solely to take back my October college football profits, and I took the bait hook, line, and sinker with the mess below.  If Uconn can't kick things off with a win for me on Friday night, I will have almost definitely completely lost my mind by 2:30 PM on Saturday afternoon.

Plays

Uconn +3 over Louisville  (2x),  Uconn ML +141 (1.41x)

In case you missed the first 7 weeks of the season, Louisville's defense sucks.  Do not let last weekends victory over Cincinnati fool you. If they weren't +4 in turnovers, they would have gotten their asses handed to them in that one as well.  They are so bad on that side of the ball in fact that if a gypsy told me with 100% certainty that Louisville would score 45 points tonight, I would still consider making an above average bet on Uconn.  I'll take the better defense and running game at home any day. If Ville scores 70 or forces 4 turnovers again, so be it.

Nebraska ML -124 over Texas A&M (3x)

Athletic Director fired, Coaching staff on the hot seat, Dissension in the locker room, 6 straight losses ATS, Coaching legend turned congressman returning to save the day.  These are the stories in Lincoln this week leading up to the game, and quite frankly I live for this type of info because it skews the line and general perception without actually affecting the result on the field.  The funny part is that at the same time all this was going on at Nebraska, A&M apparently bought out the contract of their own head coach effective the end of the season.  Nebraska no doubt has issues on the field as well, but their major problem has been stopping the pass which shouldn't be an issue against the Aggies.  Look for Nebraska to prevail in what has been labeled as the "Buy Out Bowl".

Washington +13 -103 over Oregon (2.4x)

No way on Earth the Ducks get caught looking ahead to next week's showdown in Eugene with USC. That never happens in collegiate athletics.

Navy +3 -106 over Wake Forest (2x)

Doing my best to be patriotic. Wake with nine days rest off their victory over the Noles. I still think/hope they will be a bit hungover.

Wyoming +3 -120 over Air Force (2x)

I honestly cannot name a single player on either of these teams off the top of my head.  This is quite a feat considering my massive time investment in college football.  This line looks like total fly boy bait to me.  Who wants to be patriotic these days anyway?

Pitt +9.5 -110 over Cincy (1.5x)

Wannstedt is being forced to coach this one from the booth due to an injury.  Hopefully this limits his impact on the game.  If it doesn't, I am in major trouble here.

Iowa +7 -104 over Purdue (1.5x)

I am 2-0 for a net profit of $3,700 backing my alma mater this season.  Clearly I know how to pick my spots.  Maybe I am wrong because I don't pay much attention to the Boilers, but I feel as if every Purdue season so far this decade has had the same eb and flow.  Roll the non-conf cupcakes, lose to the other Big 10 bowl teams, take it out on Indiana and Northwestern.  The only thing holding me back from a larger play here is that 7 feels like too many points.  Well that and the fact that Iowa's offense is garbage.

Bama -1 +108 over Tennessee (1.5x)

I almost feel as if I am flipping a coin with this selection, but taking the better defense at home is never a bad idea.

USC -18 +103 over Notre Dame (1.2x)

This is nothing more than my weekly attempt to include some chalk on the card. Believe it or not this is my first 2007 fade of Notre Lame.  I was 3-0-1* betting against them last year.  This play is weird in a few ways.  I am backing a 5-1 squad against a 1-6 squad.  I am laying road chalk, tons if it.  I am betting on USC.  Still, the Trojans have never had less value after their poor performances the past two games while Notre Dame has shown signs of real improvement.  My educated guess is that USC gets right in a big way this Saturday in South Bend.

* The push was Sparty completely shitting the bed in the 4th quarter.

Passes 

Vandy +14 - Really came close to playing this, but 14 seems too high

Florida -6.5 - Kentucky beats the same LSU team that took down Florida a few weeks ago and the Gay-tors are 6.5 point favorites at UK?? Really?  One road chalk play is enough for me though.

Baylor +24.5 - I miss the Bears, but I couldn't stomach them this week.

Eastern Michigan +10 - Northwestern completely over valued right now, but one Friday Night loss is plenty.

Indy +7 - Penn St laying this much on the road is suspect.  Nitnany Lions probably too physical for the Hoosiers

Virginia +4 - Not a bad price for a very even match up.  Already in a enough hot water as it is.

Illinois PK - Michigan is going to be entering a very hostile environment.  If I felt Illinois' passing game could exploit the holes in Michigan's secondary, I'd be all over it, but alas I don't. 

Most Fraudulent #2 Ever?

I am going to pass on Rutgers tonight. Normally, I would be falling over myself at the prospect of betting on an unranked team getting less than a FG at home to the #2 team in the nation, BUT everyone seems to be calling for the upset here. It is just way too trendy. I'll be shocked if USF finishes the season in the Top 10 let alone the Top 2, but I will actually be pulling for them tonight.

I added a new section, The Hall of Shame. It is a work in progress, but will be a staple of the Money Line Blog. My college football plays for the weekend will be released around 3 PM tomorrow. My Sunday NFL plays will come out sometime Saturday afternoon. It is kind of a strange week on both fronts, but I am starting to find some games I like.

Pass: Rutgers

9.5, Who the Hell Knows?

Last week was solid. Four more just like it and I can buy a used Mercedes Wagon for myself. NFL: 3-3, +$359 NCAAF: 6-2 +$3,710. As is always the case with my Wednesday NFL Breakdowns, these are merely opinions, not actual plays.

Last Weeks Opinions: 7-5-1

Arizona +9.5 at Washington

Even I feel sorry for Cardinals fans at this point. The NFC West is finally right there for them to take, but after injuries to Matty Leinart and Kurt Warner they appear to be dead in the water with Tim Rattay at the helm. I don't blame the lines makers for setting this one high, but I'd much rather take the points with Rattay than lay them with Jason Campbell and a suspect Redskins offense.

Opinion: Arizona +9.5

Atlanta +9.5 at New Orleans

It is a bit comical for a 1-4 team to be laying over a touchdown to a 1-5 team, but the Falcons really are that bad. They can't block, they can't tackle, they can't run the ball, their wide receivers don't catch the ball. Really just a total mess. I'm sure I will be on them again at some point this season, but it won't be this week.

Opinion: New Orleans -9.5

Baltimore -3 at Buffalo

Who are these people that continue to lay road chalk with the Ravens? It is a dicey proposition at best and a bankroll destroyer at worst. The Ravens simply do not score enough touchdowns on offense to lay points with on the road. If you are going to take them you might as well start praying right now for some ridiculous Ed Reed punt or interception return for a TD.

Opinion: Buffalo +3

New England -17 at Miami

I can't recall ever seeing a 20 for an NFL game, but that is what the number would have been if this game was being played in Foxboro. In all seriousness though if you aren't taking the free money Las Vegas is handing out on the Patriots every week then you are an idiot. Not only are they best team in the NFL and a mortal lock to go 16-0 ATS, but they are also easily the best athletic team in the history of the galaxy.

Opinion: Miami +17

San Francisco +9.5 at New York Giants

This number is a bit high. The G-Men just aren't that good. Still, the 49ers are stuck with either a healthy Trent Dilfer or a banged up Alex Smith at QB, so it would be hard to back them on the road with my own money.

Opinion: SF +9.5

Tampa Bay +1 at Detroit

The Buccaneers have been unbelievably good to me so far this year, but now that the secret is starting to come out, I have to say good bye. I really can't make a strong case for Detroit here either which means I won't have money on this game come Sunday.

Opinion: Detroit -1

Tennessee +1 at Houston

Yet another completely lame game on what is shaping up to be a relatively low action card for me. My guess is that CBS will ship Gus Johnson to Houston for this one which might make it somewhat watchable. Vince Young will play on Sunday, but won't be 100%. This is no secret to the odds makers though. I lean Houston, but it will take an awful lot of strong info the rest of the week for me to play them.

Opinion: Houston -1

Kansas City +2.5 at Oakland

This is easily my favorite game of the afternoon. If my roommates weren't Bears fans I'd gladly watch it on my primary TV over all the other options. I am not really sure how the Raiders are favored here. Their run defense sucks so you have to expect a big day from LJ, and the Chiefs are statistically better everywhere else too. Whatever, I'll just go with it.

Opinion: Oakland -2.5

New York Jets +6 at Cincinnati

Both of these teams suck. They are bottom 10 of the league bad. I'm not sure what to do here. Do you lay the points with a team that has no defense or do you take the six with the team that has no defense and NO quarterback. Pennington has cost me 2K over the last two weeks. You'd really think I'd be afraid to back him again.

Opinion: Jets +6

Minnesota +9.5 at Dallas

The problem for the Vikings this week is that they don't get to play against Danielle Manning and Adam Archuleta. Can they score enough points to win against a team that actually has safeties that are able to tackle? 9.5 is pretty much the odds makers "Who the hell knows?" number when it comes to the NFL. I mean they obviously believe Dallas will win the game, but by how much is anybody's guess.

Opinion: Dallas -9.5

Chicago +5.5 at Eagles

Lovie Smith is a complete and utter idiot. He is allowing his loyalty towards Adam Archuleta to competely destroy the Bears season. Normally NFL personnel guys like their safeties to either cover really well or tackle very well, preferably both. Archuleta can't tackle and he certainly can't cover. Maybe it would have worked out with a healthy Mike Brown around to cover his ass, but Brown is lost for the year. If you own Brian Westbrook in Fantasy please allow me to congratulate you in advance on your win this week.

Opinion: Eagles -5.5

St. Louis +9.5 at Seattle

Who the hell knows?

Opinion: St. Louis +9.5

Pittsburgh -3.5 at Denver

Two key things to look at here. Pittsburgh loves to run the ball and Denver has arguably the WORST run defense in the league. Denver also loves to run the ball, and Pittsburgh has arguably the BEST run defense in the league. I think I am interpreting this information correctly.

Opinion: Denver +3.5

Indy -3 at Jacksonville

I will have much more on this game Monday if I decide to play it. Does Jacksonville look REALLY easy to anyone else or is it just me?

Opinion: Jacksonville +3 

Watch Out For My Mercedes Wagon

This morning as I was dropping my roommate off at work I witnessed some random also ran needlessly park his white, 2002 Mercedes C320 station wagon in the last available post position* space. This spot was approximately 200 feet from the building whereas there was about 20 or so regular spaces open within 30 feet of the compound. Needless to say I was completely baffled by this. I mean, what type of person is willing to walk up to an extra 680 feet* per day just to reduce the already slim odds of something actually happening to the side paneling of their car by 50%. Probably the same type of person who buys a Mercedes Wagon in the first place, I suppose.

Post Position - A parking a space on the end of an aisle where one side of your car is protected by a curb

680 Feet - Not only does this asshole have to walk an additonal 170 feet to the building in the morning, he also has to do it twice more if he goes lunch and once again when he leaves in the evening. 170ftX4 = 680ft= a huge sucker.

Pure Class

Monday's Impending Disaster

I just glanced at the Google ads on my right sidebar and saw a plug for Brandon Lang's (the guy Two For the Money was based on) tout service. As much as I enjoy the $1.17 in monthly revenue that these ads bring in, I'm not sure I can justify something that directly promotes that shills business. I am about 5% confident in tonight's selection.

Atlanta Falcons +4.5 +101 over New York Giants (2x)

The Falcons are an absolute mess right now. Not only are they debating the relative merits of Joey Harrington and Byron Leftwich, but they are also without both starting offensive tackles. Their ONLY chance at keeping this respectable is to stick with Dunn and Norwood on the ground for all 4 quarters. My guess is Bobby Petrino will have abandoned the run by their 3rd offensive series allowing Osi and Strahan to tee off on Joey Harrington which could ultimately lead to the NFL's first on field decapitation. I haven't vomited over a sports wager since the Fiesta Bowl. That streak is in major trouble tonight. Depicted below is a sketch artists best guess at Joey Harringtons facial expression during post game interviews tonight.

Man, I miss Oregon.

NFL Week 6

I don't apologize for the lack of write ups.

New York Jets +3.5 -105 (2x)

Green Bay ML -172 (1.2x)

Tampa ML -135 (3.6x)

This one might seem a bit strange even to those who have been following my work for a while, but it fires on every single one of my criteria. I could have played it as TB -3 at good juice and only risked $1800, but I feel more comfortable risking an extra $600 and removing the points from the equation.

Dallas +5 EV (2x)

This will be at six closer to game time, but my social life is forcing my hand here. It won't matter when the Patriots win by 17.

Panthers +4.5 -105 (2x)

I just couldn't get away from the Gloved Quarterback Bowl. I sure hope David Carr sports the all white fields players gloves again.

Leans/Passes: Vikings, Dolphins, Chiefs, and Seahawks

If I have a play for MNF, I will post it on Monday. I could lose every single play for this weekend, college and pro, and still only be down a small amount for the last two weeks combined. That is how huge my current upswing has been.

College Football Week 7

I will be spending this Saturday in South Bend trying (not) to rekindle my boyhood faith at the Catholic Bowl, so thankfully I won't be able to follow this mess live. I'd be remiss to mention that due to a rough week at work and a death in the family, I put in about 1/3 the time in research that I normally do, which isn't a whole lot to begin with. Good luck with whatever you decide to play this weekend.

UNC +7 -105 over South Carolina (2x)

I might be a week late to the party with the Tarheels after they surprisingly clubbed Miami last week, but South Carolina is about as overrated as they come right now. They were VERY fortunate to beat Kentucky last Thursday, and I would know because I was on them. As long as the Heels don't turn it over 5 plus times we should be fine here, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that proposition.

Vandy +7 -105 over Georgia (2x)

If you are smart, you won't follow me down the toilet on this loser. Vanderbilt's inability to stop the run last week against Auburn was very alarming. Auburn was blowing holes in Vandy's defensive line that were so big Mark Mangino could have gone off for 9 ypc. I'll allow this visual to further illustrate my point.

A portrait of healthy living.

Duke +14 -110 over Virgina Tech (2x)

Unlike most sports gamblers out there, I won't try to make a case for a team where there isn't one to be made. Va Tech's special teams should be able to cover this number on their own.

Miss St +7 -109 over Tennessee (2x)

The Bulldogs have averaged less than 10 PPG the last 5 times I have wagered on them and have also failed to cover in all 5. I am actually rooting for Tennessee in this spot just to see if I can keep the streak alive. If Sylvester Croom was white, I'd hate him.

Iowa +4.5 -110 over Illinois (2x), Iowa ML +180 over Illinois  (1.8x)

I hate betting on my alma mater and only do so if the situation absolutely calls for it. Illinois value has peaked after huge home wins over Penn St and Wisconsin, both of which I called and bet on, no big deal. Iowa has blown open ass so far this year and I wouldn't be shocked if the Illini shut them out, but their defense matches up wonderfully with Illinois offense, and I like their chances of keeping things close at Kinnick.

Penn St -7 +104 over Wisconsin (2x)

This one is straight suicide. Laying points with Morelli and the rest of that dog shit offense is flat fucking stupid. I don't even want to talk anymore about it.

Oregon St +14 +101 over Cal (2x)

I love the Cal program, Jeff Tedford, Desean Jackson and the rest of the super freak athletes they posses, but #2 in the country they most certainly are not. The Beavers are no prizes themselves, but they have enough weapons on offense to keep things reasonably close against a suspect Cal defense, in theory at least.

Leans/Passes: San Jose St, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Central Florida, Kent St, Wazzu Cougs, Kentucky 

NFL Week 6 Breakdown

I lean Wake Forest tonight, but I am not going to play them. Due to work and an out of my hands real life situation, I haven't had a spare 30 minutes to do my weekly 'research' yet. Below is my weekly NFL breakdown. I will be back tomorrow with my entire College Football card for the week.

I am going to offer an ATS opinion on every game. These by no means constitute official plays.

Cincinnati -3 at Kansas City

The thing about the Bengals is that they are just not a very good football team. Most people can't look past Palmer, Johnson, and Housh to see that they currently lack a running game and a defense. Brodie Croyle is getting the start at QB this Sunday for the Chiefs. He doesn't really do much for me, but his wife sure does.

Opinions: Kansas City +3, Kelli Croyle over Brodie Croyle

Man, I should have been an NFL QB. Thanks for the image HBO.

Houston +6.5 at Jacksonville

Jacksonville is one of those teams that Las Vegas respects a lot more than the casual fan. I am still pissed at Jacksonville for getting me knocked out of my survivor pool in Week 1. Houston's run defense has been pretty stout thus far and Jacksonville certainly can't throw it. I don't recommend laying points with David Garrard, but....

Opinion: Jax -6.5

Miami +4.5 at Cleveland

Trent Green got royally fucked up again. Enter Cleo Lemon. Neither of these teams can stop the run so if you own Ronnie Brown or Jamal Lewis in Fantasy you can probably count on some quality fan points from either of the two. Forget the final score, the Clowns did a lot of good things last week against the Patriots. This line probably would have been 3 with Green in the game, but I'm not sure he is any better than Lemon. Could be worse actually.

Opinion: Miami +4.5

Minnesota +5.5 at Chicago

This line gave me a good chuckle. You'd have to be pretty sadistic to lay anything more than a field goal with this lame Bears squad. This is a classic case of overreacting to a final score and not what actually took place on the field. The Bears were completely putrid for 3 quarters of their win over Green Bay.  Minnesota is yet to name a starter at QB, but my guess is they go with Holcomb over Jackson. Who knows, maybe we will get lucky with another Brooks Bollinger sighting.

Opinion: Minnesota +5.5

Philadelphia -3 at New York Jets

I'm not sure how the Eagles are favored over anyone on the road. They can't protect McNabb and he can't move which is a pretty bad combo. I am flaming mad at Chad Pennington for self destructing in the 4th quarter last week against the Giants. He irreversibly screwed up what should have been a routine cover.

Opinion: Jets +3

St. Louis +9.5 at Baltimore

I laid 7 with Baltimore in Week 3 and got completely screwed when their defense took the 4th quarter off and let the Cardinals back in the game. I have no intention of making the same mistake twice. Still, Gus Frerotte looked lost against a below average Cardinals defense. What do you think is going to happen when the Ravens completely shut down the Rams rushing attack?

Opinion: Gus Frerotte Over 3.5 INTs

Tennessee +3 at Tampa Bay

Before the year started I had Tampa Bay rated as one of the two worst teams in football. I was wrong. They are a very solid outfit, and the losses of Cadillac/Pittman at RB really don't bother me all that much. My biggest concern here is that the Bucs have been vulnerable against the run, and that is all the Titans look to do on offense. VY looked awful last week against Atlanta.

Opinion: Tampa Bay -3

Washington +3 at Green Bay

Washington has the most success when they can physically intimidate their opponents. This was the case last week against Detroit. I don't think Green Bay falls under this umbrella, but if James Jones and Brett Favre are as careless with ball as they were last week then Green Bay will lose again. Turnovers and penalties kill.

Opinion: Green Bay -3

Carolina +4 at Arizona

It's David Carr vs Kurt Warner in the first annual "Gloved Quarterback Bowl". I just hope David Carr ditches those all white gloves he was sporting last week in New Orleans. Those things were ultra questionable. Outside of the double gloved QB angle, this game sucks. First team to 6 turnovers loses.

Opinion: Gun to my head, Carolina +4

New England -5 at Dallas

These are probably the two most popular teams in the NFL this season. I loathe them both. This game is the going to be CBS' feature afternoon game so I am 95% positive that it will be Simms and Nantz in the booth. I am setting the over/under for # of Tony Romo and Tom Brady related suck-offs at 37.5. Personally, I'd rather watch the Gloved Quarterback Bowl. God bless NFL Sunday Ticket.

Opinion: Dallas +5, Over 37.5 announcer to quarterback suck-offs

Oakland +10 at San Diego

The Chargers are going to win the AFC West despite their crappy start. That much is evident after watching them crucify Denver at Mile High on Sunday afternoon. I still think they have a shot to reach the Super Bowl and am considering buying up some San Diego Super Bowl options. I like the direction that Oakland is headed, but their run defense is suspect, and San Diego should capitalize on this.

Opinion: San Diego -10

New Orleans +6.5 at Seattle

I am guessing NBC thought this match-up between two 2006 NFC Semi-Finalists would be a bit more than a survival game for both teams when they selected it as their Week 6 broadcast. The Saints offense has completely gone to shit. They are doing a shitty job of protecting Brees, but it doesn't even matter that much because his wide-outs can't create separation anyways. If they don't figure out a way to get Reggie Bush off in a hurry it will become paper bag time once more for Aints fans.

Opinion: Seattle -6.5

New York Giants -3.5 at Atlanta

Finally a Monday night pairing that I can get amped up for. I mean, how can you not be fired up for a game in which Eli Manning, Joey Harrington, AND Byron Leftwich could all see the field?. All 3 of these guys are capable of breaking Jim Hardy's NFL record of 8 interceptions thrown in one game (My Thanks goes out to Walter Football for that factoid). Go ahead and watch Prison Break or the Hills if you must, but I will personally be keeping my eye on what could be a historic Monday night in Atlanta.

Opinion: Atlanta +3.5

The Money Line Rules

I don't have a play for tonight's ever so crucial outer conference war between Navy and Pittsburgh as making a play on this game would violate Commandment #5 of the Money Line rules:

1. No More Totals

I tried giving up totals last year for Lent, but it was basketball season, and I caved after 36 hours. The problem with totals is they provide additional opportunity for me to get myself into trouble. Once I start playing them, I can't stop. I imagine it's similar to being addicted to crack cocaine. I am sure I could learn to beat them and know of plenty of others that do, but for the time being I am just saying no to totals.

2. Big Game Does Not Equal Big Play

I define a "big game" as a game that even our mothers and girlfriends are excited about (IE, Super Bowls, BCS Bowls, Playoffs, Final 4s). These big games receive the most action and thusly usually have the tightest lines. The books know it and so do I, but that hasn't stopped me from dropping some major stink bombs in borderline situations on these games over the years. Going forward, I am going to take a sedative before evaluating these contests, and if I still see an opportunity, I will take it. Otherwise, I will simply voice my opinion and leave my money out of it.

3. 2K Max (The 10% Rule)

No wager shall exceed $2,000 USD. 2K is not an arbitrary number. It is a bit less than 10% of my bankroll. Risking any more on a single play is a recipe for disaster. Even bad gamblers know this. It is common sense. Naturally this does not apply to hedging.

4. Never Hedge Without a Middle

Hedging is such a tricky concept. I have fucked it up so many times over the years that it makes me ill just thinking about it. This rule dictates that I can only hedge if it is possible for me to win my existing future bet AND the bet I am hedging said future with. This rule confuses even me, but don't worry, I plan on tackling the topic in great detail in my upcoming article "The Futures Market: 8 Years of Heartbreak" which should hit the site in early 2008.

5. Eliminate Weeknight Woes

Weekday games, be it Monday Night Football, Thursday Night ACC Telecasts, or even Tuesday Night Small Conference Shitfests have cost me thousands of dollars and hundreds of headaches over my career. From now on a simple rule of thumb will guide me past this problem. If I wouldn't play it on a Saturday afternoon, I don't play it on a Wednesday night.

6.  Maverick Meet Iceman

My days of flying by the seat of my pants are over.  In the not so glory days I used to base my evening plays off of what happened in the morning. If I was down big, I would chase with the late games. If I was up big, I'd go for the jugular with the night action. Either way it was totally illogical. I am done being erratic and unsafe. From now on all of my plays get submitted at once with no add ons or additions allowed.

7. Live Betting Does Not Exist

It just doesn't okay. I don't care if you try to tell me that two of my Top 6 books offer it on all nationally televised events, I can't see it, and I refuse to believe that which I cannot see. Live Betting is potentially more lethal than heroin. It can ruin even the most astute sports bettor. I have seen it with my own eyes and there is no place for it in my life. This includes 2nd half bets.

8. Flip Flopping is for Around the Horn Contestants

There is nothing more frustrating than leaning one way on a game all week long, changing your mind, and then subsequently losing a wager. It happened to be a few weeks ago with the South Florida/West Virgina game, and it is maddening. If I can make a case for both sides, the game automatically becomes a pass. This isn't exactly rocket science. A guy with a degree from a lower tier Big 10 school should have figured out a lot sooner really.

This blog exists to help me maximize profit, and these rules truly are for my own good, so if you see me violate one of these commandments, please call me out immediately in the comments section. Thanks in advance.

Week In Review

This first installment of the Week In Review will cetainly have a more positive tone than future editions as I am coming off without question the biggest five day run of my entire sports wagering career. I won't elaborate any further so as not to jinx myself.  The site wasn't functional enough yet for me to post this past weekend's selections on time, but you can view them here. On to the observations:

• Trent Edwards, Cleo Lemon, David Carr, Gus Frerotte, David Garrard, Trent Dilfer, and Brian Griese. Those are the names of the NFL quarterbacks who covered spreads for me this weekend. Not exactly a whos who of the guys you'd expect to find in Maui for the Pro Bowl.
• After catching virtually zero breaks in all of September, I received gifts a plenty on Sunday. First, the Rams scored a late, meaningless touchdown plus a 2 point conversion to earn me a cover by the hook. Then in the late nigt game the Packers defecated on themselves and their fans when they handed the Bears the game with four ludicrous turnovers. Thanks Brett and James!!
• I cannot believe how bad Louisville is this year. I knew their defense would miss Okoye and the other departures, but they are so horrible on that side of the ball. The ease with which MTSU and Utah moved the ball on them was staggering. Things are so bad that they are 10 point dogs heading to Cincy on Saturday. Nobody could have predicted that spread two months ago.
• Having money on Todd Reesing (Kansas) and Juice Williams (Illinois) simultaneously on Saturday morning was almost too much to take. I ended up winning both bets, but I still feel like I lost. Both of those guys are pick sixes waiting to happen. I know Mangino is really busy dominating 8 squares a day, but he really should spend some time teaching Todd Reesing the concept of touch. KU might be good enough to win the Big 12 North if he figures it out.
• Is New England going to go 16-0 ATS the spread this year? After last Sunday's absurd cover on the late fumble six I am convinced something is up. Thank God my money wasn't tied up on that bullshit.
• Was Pete Carroll fast asleep at the wheel on Saturday night? I only caught the final 43 seconds of Stanford's upset win over the mighty Trojans, so I am not really sure how it went down, but how on Earth do you lose at home as a 41 point favorite? Historically this wasn't as big of an upset as Appalachian St/Michigan was, but according to the oddsmakers it was less probable.