I could give a laundry list of reaons as to why 99.5% of the general population loses at sports wagering, but ultimately it really boils down to one thing, Juice, aka the bookmakers cut. First allow me to briefly explain juice for the gentiles out there.
Wagering, like any other hobby, costs money. Most bookmakers will charge a 10% tax per wager. This tax is often referred to as juice or vig. At 10% juice if you wish to make a bet to win $100, you must risk $110. If your bet wins you get $100 and your initial stake of $110 is returned to you. If the bet does not win, you lose your $110. It might not sound like much, but over time it adds up to thousands and thousands of dollars. Just to break even at standard 10% juice one must hit 52.7% of his wagers. This is not easy to do.
In the old days there wasn't much you could do about the vig. If you wanted to get down on a game you called your local bookie/mob boss, and you paid whatever he charged. Offshore gaming has changed the sports wagering landscape significantly. Exchanges and reduced juice shops have made it possible for players to pay way less than 10% per bet. So what's the big deal??
Table 12.11 compares the results of two gamblers, Mikey B and Donnie C, over the course of 1,000 wagers. Both Mikey and Donnie flat bet at $1,000 per game and they are both good enough that they hit 55% of their wagers (550-450). The only difference betweeen the two is that Mikey B bets at Matchbook and Donnie C bets at Sportsbook.Com.
Table 12.11 |
Mikey B |
Donnie C |
| Average Vig: 5% |
Average Vig: 10% |
| Net Gains: (550)(1,000) = $550,000 |
Net Gains: (550)(1,000) = $550,000 |
| Net Losses: (450)($1,050) = $472,500 |
Net Losses: (450)(1,100) = $495,000 |
| Net Profit: (550,000) - (472,500) = $77,500 |
Net Profit: (550,000) - (495,000) = $55,000 |
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The table above illustrates that Mikey B will make $22,500 more than Donnie C every 1,000 wagers solely because he saves money on vig. The further you extrapolate the data, the more staggering the savings become.
So why would Donnie C wager at Sportsbook.com with other alternatives available?? Who the fuck knows? Probably because they advertise a shitload and have Nikki Cox as a spokesperson. There is no good excuse for paying 10% if you choose to wager offshore. Even with Pinnacle no longer serving the US there are still plenty of totally reputable shops offering reduced juice that will welcome your action with open arms.
I'm sure some of you are thinking to yourselves, but Money Line, I only bet $30 a game, this doesn't effect me. WRONG. I used the 55% and $1,000 figures because they accurately represent how I handle my wagering, but the simple fact of the matter is that juice effects all bettors proportionately. Bet size and winning % are completely irrelevant.
Per usual I could careless what anyone else does when it comes to this stuff. It took me 3 years of wagering to even notice the cumulative result of paying full vig. Eventually I got sick of going 3-2 yet barely showing a profit, and decided to seek alternative means of wagering. Hopefully some of you will do the same.
Figure 12.12 |
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Will Cost You Thousands |
