The Money Line Journal

Turkey Day Turnaround

I am without question in the middle of a downswing.  Definitely time to be careful until things start going better.  I am not playing all 3 of these simply because it is Thanksgiving.  All 3 are solid contrarian looks, and they compose 3 of my 5 Carib contest selections for Week 12. 

Detroit +3.5 -112 over Green Bay (2x)

New York Jets +14 +108 over Dallas Cowgirls (2x)

Atlanta +11.5 +105 over Indy Colts (2x)

I might pop in VERY late tonight with a play on the Great Alaska shoot out.  Let's see how these go first.  Good luck and Happy Holidays.

4:39 PM:

And the bleeding of profit continues.  Absolutely no hope in the 2nd half of the Jets game.  The first thing I did upon arriving home was mark it down as a loss on my spreadsheet.

Western Kentucky +6.5 -107 over Gonzaga (1.2x)

USC Trojans -3 -109 over Arizona St (4x)

I have been deciding what to do with this USC line all week.  Even though it is mighty USC, we still have a lower ranked team laying a FG to a higher ranked team on the road.  Consider the fact that Arizona St has been a more publicly backed team than USC so far this year, and I think it is a strange line.  This has me more than willing to take  a large shot on the much better defense.

Admittedly though, this is a bit of a force.  I am at my worst as a player when my profits start to whittle away.  If this hits, great, I will take some momentum into the weekend.  If it loses, then it will be time for me to cover up and protect my remaining profits until bowl season.  There certainly won't be any chasing.

7 PM:

Sold off my initial Falcons stake at a $50 loss.  Replacing it with this:

Falcons +13 +108 over Colts (2x)

Man, I am paranoid right now.

Black(out) Wednesday Selections

Just cannot post these all at once today with the day games.  Will update as needed.

12:19 PM:

Arizona St -2 -107 over LSU (1.2x)

Rhode Island +3 -110 over Boston Colelge (1.2x)

2:04 PM:

Zona St gives up a 10-0 run to end the half.  Considering I never should have been on them in the 1st place, I am breaking a Money Line rule and buying back half of my stake.

LSU +1.5 for the game (.6x)

Oklahoma St +5 -102 (1.2x)

5:32 PM:

Get home from work to find that Rhode Island missed the cover by one point.  Good times.  These could be my final college hoops selections before conference play begins.  There is no way I am letting my aggregate hoops numbers dip into the red before January.  Not going to make my Turkey Day moves until tomorrow morning as I want to see how the lines react to the morning rush before comitting.  Leaning Lions, Jets, and Falcons.

Washington +4.5 +101 over Texas A&M (1.2x)

Ohio St +2.5 -101 over Syracuse (1.2x)

Western Michigan +4 +101 over Davidson (1.2x)

UNLV +3.5 -102 over Louisville (1.2x)

T'Wolves +5 -103 over Cleveland Cavs (1.2x)

Absolutely Fucking Laughable

I've suffered through a handful of painfully close losses the last two weeks, but the Michigan St defeat last night really takes the cake.  Sparty was winning outright LITERALLY the entire way until Cameroon national and owner of a broken jump shot, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, nailed an open corner three to give UCLA a 3 point lead with 28 seconds left.  Naturally, Drew Neitzel, one of the best shooters in the country followed this make with an air ball 3 of his own, and two Josh Shipp FT's later I lose by one fucking point.  Welcome to wagering on college hoops.

After much thought and deliberation, this has NOTHING to do with the aforementioned loss by the way, I am going to make some major changes with regards to how I handle my wagers and this blog.  In terms of monetary gain the last 2+ months have vastly exceeded expectations.  I mean, how many people can make over 11K in less than 3 months from their hobbies??

However, at the same time not many people lose sleep, sanity, and suffer a decrease in quality of life from their hobbies either, and that is what I have been experiencing for the last month or so.  In the past I probably would have ignored the warning signs, popped a couple Lunesta, and kept trudging forward, but I'm too smart for that at this point in my life.  Most gamblers don't make adjustments until they are deep in the hole or flat broke.  That just isn't my style, I am always willing to analyze and adjust if it will improve my situation.  Changes are as follows:

- On most days there will be two posts instead of the customary one.  I feel like I have been rushing my selections to get funny posts up and vice versa.  This adjustment needs no explanation.  You will see exactly what I am talking about in the coming days.

- I have steepened my play selection criteria and thusly will be placing fewer wagers.  I am doing this in an effort to increase profitability while simultaneously reducing stress.  I have made way too many border line moves this season, and quite frankly said border line plays are the ones that drive me up the wall the most.  As mad as that Michigan St loss last night made me, it was a legit move and I don't beat myself up too much over those.   If I am going to go broke, I want to go broke making strong moves, not playing Monmouth on a Monday afternoon in mid-November.

- I am going to give flat betting a try indefinitely.  At the moment I just don't trust myself to keep Money Line reigned in.  The recent Denver MNF play is a perfect example of this.  Denver wasn't even one of my 5 selections for Carib's NFL contest yet come Monday it was in a tie for my biggest play of the week.  This makes no sense, and the fact that it won doesn't make the situation any better.  For now bet sizes will be $1,000 for football and $600 for hoops.  I will reevaluate this policy in a couple of months. 

- To make up for the diminishing quantity of selections, I am going to start posting recommendations for the "bigger" contests that I am not playing personally.  Naturally, you are welcome to follow these if you please, and I will keep a record on them for shits and giggles, but I honestly couldn't careless if I go 40-123 on my recommendations so long as my actual plays are still hitting.  Don't get me wrong, I won't intentionally sandbag you with bad info, and I won't offer an opinion if I don't have one, it's just that if I am not invested personally in a game, I couldn't careless how it turns out.

That's it.  These changes really aren't that significant.  Hopefully they manage to make an impact on my bottom line/stress disorder.  I will be making another post early Wednesday evening that will contain selections for Black Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

Sun Belt Tuesday

For some people this is a lite week at work, not so for me.  Really wanted to bang out an atricle on reduced juice today, but never got the chance.  I guess I will add it to my queque.

MTSU +14 -110 over Troy (1x)

Liked this for more, but the late line movement is all wrong.  I wish I could get completely away from it, but I can't.

Sac Kings +7 +107 over Phoenix Suns (.8x)

Atlanta Hawks +6 -104 over San Antonio Spurs (.8x)

Chicago Bulls +8 +107 over Denver Nugs (1.6x)

Saint Marys +3.5 -111 over Oregon Ducks (1.6x)

Michigan St +4 -108 over UCLA (1.6x)

Monmouth Monday

Sunday was incredibly frustrating.  Lose by a half point with the Ravens after the ridiculous Phil Dawson FG.  Lose by a point with the 49ers after two dropped passes in the end zone and some patently stupid 4th quarter decision making by Mike Nolan.  Really just no breaks to be found and yet only a small loss on the day leaves me feeling somewhat sane.  Hopefully a few of these go my way:

Denver -1.5 -105 over Tennessee Titans (1x), Denver ML -114 (2x)

Initially I didn't think much of this look, but then this morning I was greeted by an avalanche of touts and life long losing gamblers who all seem convinced that the Titans are the cure to what ails them.  The lack of Bronco backers can be easily explained by the rather obvious advantage Tennessee figures to have with their strong rushing attack going up against a weak Denver run D, but if it really is that simple then why is a 4-5 Denver team favored against the 6-3 Titans??  I guess I'd be a little more hesitant if Chris Henry or Brown figured to be the lead back tonight, but with Lendale the Buffet Killer figuring to handle most of the carries, I really like Denver's chances.

Maryland +10 EV 0ver UCLA (.8x)

UCLA is good, but this is a major overlay for a game on a neutral court.  The Terps have had serious turnover issues in their first couple of games.  I am praying that they will tighten this up tonight against a very aggressive UCLA defense.

Missouri +1.5 +104 over Michigan St (.8x)

Line has dropped 2.5 points since it opened with the majority of bettors on Michigan St. 

Monmouth +7 -108 over UNC Charlotte (.8x)

I can't act like I know anything about Monmouth.  I think the university is located somewhere in New Jersey, but I am not quite sure.  Anytime more than 80% of the players at Wagerline are on one side, I will be on the other.  Not that complex.

Straight Pain

Was lucky to get out of yesterday with only a tiny loss.  This is entirely too much action, but what else am I supposed to do with a card this juicy.

Jax -3 +106 over San Diego (1.5x)

Baltimore +2.5 +103 over Cleveland (1.2x)

Jets +9.5 -103 over Pittsburgh (1.8x)

Atlanta +3.5 -107 over Tampa Bay (1.8x)

Houston ML -114 over New Orleans (3x)

Carolina +10 -109 over Green Bay (1.8x)

Buffalo +14.5 over New England (1.5x)

San Fran +3 -103 over St Louis (1.8x)

Hungover Selections

Put these in hungover. Buyer beware.  To be fair I've known who I was going to be on since Thursday.

Kansas St +7 -104 over Missouri (3x)

The only game on the board that I truly love.  Kansas St coming off an absolutely embarrasingly loss to a Nebraksa team that Missouri destroyed, and the line is only 7 with Missouri still in the national title race?? C'Mon.  Ideally what I am looking for is a Kansas St outright so that I can get a better price on Mizzou next week against Kansas.  Realistically Missouri is going to step on Prince's Wildcats.

Western Michigan +14 over Iowa (1.8x)

Unlike most, I have no problem fading my alma mater, especially when they posess one of the lamest offenses in the country.  It still won't be easy.  I am expecting a mistake fest from the quartbacks.  Hopefully Hiller makes fewer than Christensen.

Duke +6.5 -102 over Notre Dame (1.8x)

Oh how the mighty have fallen.  Nobody has lost more money on Duke than me, but I fail to see how a Notre Dame squad who has been embarassed by virtually everyone is 6.5 points better.

Texas Tech +8 -112 over Oklahoma (1.8x)

I am not a fan of Leach's Texas Tech program.  I'd much rather back a dog with a defense and a rushing attack than one that runs a circus offense.  Texas Tech's offense better take care of the ball because their D is not going to be able to get off the field.  The Sooners weak spot has been their pass defense.  Hopefully Harrell can capitalize 7-9 times.

Northwestern +13.5 -103 over Illinois (1.8x)

Textbook letdown spot. Certainly not a game in which Zook will be weaping on the field afterwards if they win.

Cincy +5.5 -110 over West Virginia (1.5x), Cincy +5 -105 (1x)

Laying road chalk with the Mountaineers just is not a good idea.  I learned this the expensive way earlier in the year.  Too many people on Cincy for me to unload.  At the same time I just can't pass this up.

UL Monroe +25 -110 over Alabama (1.2x)

Solid Sun Belt squad should be able to put enough points to keep this within the number.

Penn St -2.5 -103 over Michigan St (1.2x)

Michigan St is pretty much a public dog, and I don't blame people for backing them because they probably should be favored.  Just a weird line.  Probably shouldn't even get involved.

Always valuable passes: Vandy, Minnesota, Indiana, Baylor, SMU, Florida Atl

Yet Another MAC Shitfest

Was so busy at work today that I couldn't even update my record let alone get anything else done wagering wise.  These two shape up okay.  Tomorrow's looks will be up tomorrow morning.

Eastern Michigan +14.5 -107 (1.5x)

Minnesota +3.5 EV (.8x)

Suspect Movement in the Desert

1) I was surprised by the amount of Arizona backers I saw on the boards today.

2) Despite this the majority of  the action is coming in on Oregon and the line just continues to drop the ohter way.  I don't know who the hell is steaming the shit out of this (It was me at 5 Dimes), but I have to take an above average shot on Zona.  Probably my second biggest play of the week on the college end.  Just really don't like this week's college slate, however, I LOVE the NFL card.

Arizona +11 -106.5 over Oregon (1.5x)
Arizona +10 -105 over Oregon (.9x)

Dallas Mavs ML -122 over San Antonio (.8x)

College Buckets Futures

When I buy futures I am not looking to take favorites.  It is no secret that this college basketball season Memphis, UNC, UCLA, Louisville, and Kansas are the teams to beat.  Everyone knows it and they are priced accordingly.  If I bet on UNC to win it all and they come through I will look really smart, but at 6-1 I am not going to make any money, and that is all I really care about when it comes to this stuff.  If a chalk teams cuts down the nets in April so be it, but more often than not the preseason favorites come up short.  Long before the Florida Gators won back to back national titles and became regarded as one of the best teams of all time, they were nothing more than 100-1 longshot to win it all in the Fall of 2005.   My 2007-2008 college basketball futures are:

Tennessee to win the National Title (1x to win 48x)

I made this bet back in June hours after learning that Tyler Smith (transfer from Iowa) would be eligible this season.  Verfication of this can be found here.  The bulk of my bet was made at 50-1 odds, although they did move the line on me after I wagered my first $400.  Right now Tennessee is anywhere from 15-1 to 30-1 depending on where you shop.  I had a lot to do with this drop in price.

I love this squad.  In addition to returning star Chris Lofton and inheriting star transfer Tyler Smith, they also return a trio of guys (Smith, Chism, and Childress) who played significant minutes last year as Freshman.  All of these guys should improve leaps and bounds in their sophmore seasons.   They also added some quality depth with some other transfers and incoming frosh. The Vols should carry the S.E.C. and if they do they will be no worse than a #2 seed in the Big Dance.  Not bad for 50-1 huh??

Indiana to win the National Title (Risking 1.2x to win 30x)

This one I put in just last night.  After I hit it for .5x at 25-1 (my limit collar on futures there) at 5 Dimes they dropped it to 20-1.  I got the remaining $350 down at WSEX at 25-1.  I had been considering them along with a few others for quite some time, but honestly would not have made this play without a nudge from my buddy "Ginger".

The Hoosiers will have a tougher time winning their conference than the Vols will thanks to the prescence of Michigan St and Ohio St, but their upside is bigger.  If their is a better inside-out combo in the entire country than D.J. White and Eric Gordon please inform me.  Ratliff, Bassett, and Stemler all saw extended minutes last season and all 3 can help stretch the floor for White.  Juco transfers Deandre Thomas and Jamarcus Ellis add athleticism and quality depth.

Today's Plays:

Akron+8 -112 over Miam Ohio  (1.2x)

I can't pass up the chance to back the MAC's worst offense against the MAC's best defense.  The services are cramming Miami OH down their customer's throats and the line is moving the opposite way. Hmmm...

New York Knicks +8 +106 over La Clip Joint (.8x)

Second game of a back to back with their starting PG throwing a hissy fit and refusing to play.  Sign me up.

Ball St +3 -108 over Wisconsin-Milwaukee (.8x)

I cannot name a single player on the floor tonight, but I also could not find a single other Ball St backer whereas there were myriads of Wisconsin-Mil posts across the boards and newsletters. I'll take a chance.

North Texas +5 EV over Oklahoma St (.8x)

Name program that can no longer live up to its name.  I just hope the Green Machine don't play D like their football team does.

Davidson +11.5 -109 over UNC (1.2x)

Total bait with the #1 team in the country playing on ESPN.  Davidson should keep this close on a somewhat neutral floor.