The Money Line Journal

Ringing In The New Year

Below are my moves for NYE and New Year's Day.  Happy New Year Folks.

NYE Hoops:

Chicago Bulls +2.5 EV (2)

Fordham +19.5 -107 (1)

NYE Bowl Plays:

Force/Cal Under 57 EV (1)

Oregon +6.5 -105 (1)

Oregon +6 +106 (1)

Florida St +7 -105 (1)

Indiana +6 -105 (1)

Indiana +5.5 -105 (1)

Clemson -2 -106 (3)

New Year's Day Bowls:

Wisconsin ML +111 (2)

Michigan +10 +109 (2)

Illinois +13.5 -104 (1)

Georgia -7.5 -105 (1)

NFL Week 17

Week 17 in the NFL is always an adventure.  During no other week will you find lines this strange.  Naturally this makes me hard.  For the AM:

Carolina -2.5 -116 (1)

Dolphins ML +121 (1)

Detroit +4.5 -105 (2)

Atlanta -1 +110 (3)

Houston -6.5 -103 (2)

2:40 PM

Ravens +3.5 -107 (2)

6:30 PM

This morning turned out pretty nicely.  At one point all five of my moves were failing to cover, but I ended up 3-2 and then picked up the Ravens win in the afternoon.  Hopefully the positivity keeps flowing:

Colorado Buffs +4.5 -102 (2)

Titans -4 -109 (2)

LA Lakers -3 -106 (2)

Saturday Selections

This are my morning afternoon plays.  The bulk of what I like goes off this evening.

NCAAF:

Miss St +3 -106 (1)

NCAAB:

Wisconsin +8 -105 (1)

Washington +5 -105 (1)

2:41 PM

Had I not worked this morning Washington would have never ended up on the card.  Late news was awful.  Passing A&M in the bowl night cap.  They are a 2* contest play, but just way too much late action on the Aggies and the line bowing the opposite way with Penn St now favored by 6 at most shops.  Hanging my hat on these hoops plays instead:

NBA:

Indiana +4.5 -101 (1)

NCAAB:

Brown +18.5 -109 (2)

Dayton +2.5 -107.5 (2)

Illinois St +6.5 EV (2)

Boise St +4.5 -109 (1)

A Calculated Risk

Today's card is absolutely insane.   Not so much as far as the bowl games go, but there are a ton of good looking hoops plays.  I made the move posted below two days ago, it was posted Thursday on the RMMB board, but I am just getting it up here now.

I bought up 75 Chargers Super Bowl contracts on the WSEX live market this morning. 50 for $4. 25 for $5. I just really like the way their defense has been playing the last couple of weeks. If they sustain this momentum heading into the playoffs they have a chance to overcome Phil Rivers.

Now obviously I don't love their chances of winning back to back weeks in Indy/NE, but if they beat the Raiders Sunday and take care of Ten/Cle in the Wild Card round then there odds will be sitting right around 10/1 going into the Divisionals at which point I can start selling off shares. If they shit the bed in Round 1, it's still less than a 1x loss.

Snowed In Friday

Been stuck doing menial tasks outdoors in the midst of a blizzard all day long so needless to say I haven't had much time to do my important work.   The following play was a five when the lines first came out but the suspension of Saint-Dic and the subsequent line movement has forced me to downgrade it to a 4.

Michigan St Spartans +5 +103 (4)

I am probably not going to play the other two bowl games, but I will have some hoops plays later. 

4:45 PM

Michigan St absolutely dominating BC in the 1st quarter but thanks to two Spartan turnovers it is 7-7 instead of 17-0.  Pretty much par for the course when it comes to Sparty.

Eastern Mich +13 -108 (1)

So Miss +7 -105 (1)

UCF +4 -105 (2)

Miami Heat +4 -105 (1)

Charlotte Bobcats +3.5 -105 (1)

Fading the Best Teams In B-Ball Thursday

I do not have a play for tonight's Holiday Bowl.  Ever so slight lean towards Texas, but I am not going to fuck around with it as I have a bunch of multi-unit college foots plays coming up over the next week including a potential 5 unit move tomorrow.  Going with these buckets moves for tonight:

NBA:

LA Clips +8 -101 (2)

"Super"sonics +10 -107 (1)

NCAAB:

Nevada Reno +21 -105 (1)

Single Unit Wednesday

Nothing I love, but a lot I like today.   Some big ones coming up over New Years weekend.  Don't want to break the bank early.

NCAAF:

CMU/Purdue Over 72 -107 (1)

NBA:

Jersey +5 EV (1)

Utah -3 -114 (1)

Milwaukee Fucks +8.5 -103 (1)

Sacto Queens +7 +109 (1)

Twas the Night Before X-Mas

And not a creature was stirring, except for poor Money Line who was cursing at the television over the Broncos non existent rushing defense.

Broncos +9 -108 (1x)

Not a whole lot here.  Chargers destroyed Denver earlier this year and have plenty of motive to win this one, as two more wins and they avoid the Pats until the AFC Title Game.   

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

ECU +10.5 +102 (3x)

Same thing as yesterday only we will probably need even more good fortune for this one to come through.

The Texans play turned out terribly.  Based on the line and common sense I figured Manning and the rest of the starters would play a series or two at the most as the game meant nothing for the Colts.  Nope, Peyton is still in the 3rd quarter and it appears as if they are actively trying to run up the score. Fuck Me.

NFL Week 16

The last two weeks of the NFL season are always tricky.  It is all about determining motive.  My strategy is to fade the really good teams with very little to play for.  Of course I will also still take shots at any suspect lines.  See also, my Bengals play.

Bengals ML +124 (Risking 2x)

Houston +7 -105 (3x)

Oakland +13 -105 (1x)

49ers +6 -105 (2x)