The Money Line Journal

Saturday Hoops

If I valued my money and sanity, I would leave these alone and focus on the impending So Miss loss.  Feels funny to be betting on some actual good teams, but these are hardly square.

Memphis -4 -108 (1x)

Tenny +4 EV (1x)

Tenny ML +165 (Risking 1x)

5:00 PM

This line is ultra shady.

Miami +1 -104 (2x)

Time To Finish Strong

I am going to handle things on the fly today and put my plays in one by one in order to maximize my losses. 

So Miss +11 +105 (3x)

I am going to try to supply reasoning for these as often as I can, but this play has no justification.  There is no way on Earth So Miss keeps this within 30 let alone 11.   I thought this line would be something like Cincy -14.5.  Just baffling.  Maybe the books are feeling festive and giving away cash on Cincy.  Glyde 69 from Covers sure seems to think so:

"Cincinnati -10.5 Okay a 3 month old crack baby can manufacture this pick without a second thought. When I first saw the line I purposely went into my studying with the intent of finding reasons to play Southern Miss. I really couldn't find a reason though. I did find 643 reasons to pound Cincy though. I can ramble all day but most importantly I like them because their D creates many turnovers AND they don't play down to lesser opponents. They BEAT DOWN a handful of teams that they should have this year. A lot of better teams in the nation can't exactly brag that."

I completely agree Glyde.  At least one of us will win some money today.

Yawn

Passing my initial lean of FAU in tonight's R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl.  There are just way too many people going Hoot for the Owls, and I refuse to flip on a lean only to end up on a Memphis side that plays no defense.  I am as shocked as anyone that I have passed the first two bowl contests, but there are bigger and better games ahead that I would rather save my money for.  I know for a fact that I will have a least one college foots play tomorrow.  Going with these in the NBA tonight:

76ers +3 -109 over Kobe Bryant (2x)

Kevin Durant +5 -101 over Toronto (1x)

Minny T'Wolves +5.5 -106 over Indiana (1x)

Showing Some Restraint

I am taking a very rare night off.  I looked at the lines and nothing sang to me.  I refuse to bet on the overvalued Rams with their soft defense and crappy offensive line.  Pitt initially looked good to me in college hoops, but tons of message board posters are on them, and the 6 point spread on a neutral court seems high to me with both teams being undefeated and ranked in the Top 10.

Utah would have to be the biggest pass of the night.  I have them as 1* play in the big bowl contest, but the late information just has not been good.  The last thing I want to do is force a questionable play, have it lose, and then be out of sorts for the remainder of bowl season.  It just isn't worth it.

I am not sure what I will do with my spare time tonight.  I am stuck at my parents house for the holidays. Maybe I'll build a snowman or bake some cookies.  Who knows.  The possibilites are endless.  Good luck tonight.

Selections

Aside from Saturday cards, Wednesday night hoops easily provides the most volume of any day of the week.  These cards can get sort of insane.

NBA:

Charlotte +5 -104 (1x)

New York +3.5 +101 (2x)

Minnesota +7 -105 (1x)

Seattle +3 -101 (1x)

NCAAB:

Baylor +4 -107.5 (2x)

UNLV +4 -114 (1x)

College Bowl Contest Plays

In addition to the regular wagers I will be placing during bowl season, I have also entered a lucrative contest that has a very nice prize pool and cost me a full unit to enter.  For this contest I had to select 15 ATS spread plays with 5 being worth 1 pt, 5 worth 2 pts, and 5 worth 3 pts.  Below is what I came up with.

These contest selections will probably closely mirror my real money wagers, but I have not placed any such bets yet.  Those will be placed and posted on game-days. 

Three Point Selections

Michigan St +3 over Boston College

I knew this would be the line so while it is not fishy to me, it probably is to most gamblers.  10-2 ACC runner up only laying a FG to a 7-5 Big 10 also ran??   This line reflects on the fact that despite the records and a highly overrated QB, there is very little separating these two squads in terms of talent.  Boston College can't be happy to be back in the Champs Sports Bowl either, not after spending most of the year being hailed as a BCS contender. 

Wisconsin +3.5 over Tennessee

Another low bait line.  Wisconsin has completely blown ass outside of Camp Randall this season.  Destroyed by Penn St and Ohio St.  Thoroughly outplayed by Illinois.  Lucky to beat Minnesota and UNLV.  Tennessee on the other hand nearly beat LSU for the SEC title and is the owner of a dominating win over a BCS squad (Georgia).  All this and the line is currently sitting at Wisco +2.5 at Pinnacle.  The writing is all over the wall.

Clemson -2 over Auburn

My concerns over the academic suspensions for Clemson were pretty much alleviated when the line moved from -2 to -2.5 on the news.   This line is set low because Clemson comes from the ACC and Auburn from the SEC.  It is stupid.  Both teams are great defensively, but Auburn is absolutely horrendous on the offensive side of the ball.  It won't be pretty, but barring some ridiculous turnovers/officiating, Clemson will get it done.  Almost looks too easy.

Ball St +10 over Rutgers

This is a nice overlay considering Ball St was only getting 13 in Champaign 6 weeks ago.  Rutgers has the better defense, but they have struggled to get off the field and subsequently lost to teams that have spread them out.   Ray Rice will have a nice day, and they will probably break a big one or two in the passing game, but ultimately Mike Teel is way too inconsistent to lay ten with.  An outright victory for Testicle St is not out of the question.

Kansas +3 over Va Tech

This line only looks low because Va Tech has been good for the last 10 years while Kansas has pretty much sucked ass.  Unless Michael Vick and DeAngelo Hall decide to suit up in Miami, Va Tech's history won't be putting any points on their side of the scoreboard.  If anything being historically good hurts you in situations like this because this game will mean far much more to the Kansas kids then it will to Va Tech, who finds itself in this position every 2 years.  Very rarely do you get a chance to back the better team, and Kansas is better, getting points, and still have it be decidedly anti-public.  This shapes up as my biggest play of the bowl season.

Two Point Selections

USM +11 over Cincy

I have looked high and low yet still haven't found a stat that suggests USM keeps it close.  Cincy should be able to keep Fletcher pinned down, and the Bearcats should also be able to pass on the Golden Eagles all day.  I thought this line would be Cincy -14.5 or higher.  It's not which is pretty much all I need to know to take a shot with So Miss.

ECU +10.5 over Boise St

This game is a vacation for Boise.  They passed on the chance to play a power conference foe in Boise opting instead to take their second trip to Hawaii in a months time.  The Broncos are statistically better in most facets of the game, but not so much so that ECU appears completely doomed on paper.  In the end, I am just not sure how Boise gets up for a C-USA opponent a year after their memorable victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.  Chris Peterson will really have to earn his money on this trip.

Texas A&M +5 over Penn St

Watch the line movement carefully in this game.  If it flares up to 6 or 6.5 it will be a clue to stay away.  I just don't view as Penn St being 5 better than A&M in a game that is being played in Texas.  A&M will have trouble consistently running it, but their multi pronged rushing attack should have enough success to keep this one within the number.

Colorado +3.5 over Alabama

More fun with the SEC bias.  I've read a lot about the so called coaching edge in this one.  It's almost as if these Bama backers actually believe that Saban is focusing on the Buffs and not lining up his next gig.   Not a whole lot separates these teams statistically on offense.  I am going to back the Buffaloes in hopes that their defense can force the inconsistent Parker-Wilson into a few mistakes.

Indiana +4.5 over Oklahoma St

This one will be very hard to stomach.  I get that Okie St was only 6-6, but their offense is super explosive, and Indiana has been shredded by every decent offense they have faced yet we are getting less than 6 to take the Hoosiers.   The only silver lining is that Okie St is terrible on defense as well.  At any rate the line is moving away from the considerable one sided action on the Pokes, which is enough for me.

One Point Selections

Utah -8.5 over Navy

I am not a fan of the recent line movement to -7.5, but the contest play is already in.  The opening line for this game suggested that the books preferred public money on the nations top rushing team to sharp money on the Utes.  They got what they wanted because Navy is pretty public for a dog.    Utah's inconsistency overall and especially in the passing game will keep me from being on them big, but they could easily run Navy out of San Diego if they get things going.

Air Force +3.5 over Cal

It is easy to picture Cal and their stable of fast skill players blowing AF out until you remember that Cal has looked like absolute shit throughout the latter part of the season.  Maybe Cal will show up in Fort Worth focused and intent on salvaging their season.  If that is the case then Force is in trouble, but in my experience it rarely happens this way.  Besides, how do you bet against the Air Force in the Bell Helicopters Armed Forces Bowl??

Michigan +10.5 over Florida

Lame duck coach with a defense that can't stop the spread going up against the Heisman trophy winner whose game is tailored towards running his coaches variation of the spread offense.  Michigan should probably just forfeit now because this game is clearly a formality.

Illinois +13.5 over USC

USC's defense is VERY good, but their seems to be a general feeling that the defense has finally caught up to the offense.  This is wrong.  The offense has dropped off precipitously this year despite all of the highly touted skill players they continue to put on the field.  They'll make some plays, but consistently moving the ball against good defenses has been a problem for them, especially when they can't get the running game going.  If Illinois exhibits some patience on offensive and continues to run even if they don't succeed early then they will be in the game until the very end.  Unfortunately Ron Zook is still the coach so who knows what the hell they will do.

West Virginia +6.5 over Oklahoma

This is borderline at best.  There were literally 5 or 10 other potential plays that I considered for this final spot.  Even though I think Rich Rod is a good coach, I like WVU more now that he has jumped ship to take the job at Michigan.  The WVU players simply cannot be happy about this and its should give them extra motivation for this game.  Ultimately, I am just now blown away by anything Oklahoma has done this year.  Their 21 point win over Missouri in the Big 12 title was not nearly as easy nor impressive as the final score made it out to be.   It is tough to say how WVU's gimmick 3-3-5 will perform against OU's athletes, but they have been solid on D so far this year, and Bradford is not nearly as good as his numbers make him out to be.

Other Potential Real Money Plays

Florida Atl/Memphis Over

Neither defense worth writing home about.  Lean Owls as a side as well, but will probably just play the total.

UCLA +5.5 over BYU

I wonder which team will be tempted more by the wonders of Vegas, the Mormons or the team without a coach.  Funny game all around.  UCLA was favored by 7  and won by 10 in Pasadena when these teams hooked up in Week 2, but so much has changed since then.  If anything a small play on the Bruins.

Central Mich/Purdue Over

Another super high total that has a good chance of going over.  CMU a possible side, their lack of a defense is a major concern.

Texas -2.5 over Arizona St

My sports smarts tell me that Texas wins which means Arizona St will win.  Really not seeing a contrarian angle here.  If ASU gets enough love on the boards, I might bite.

Houston +4 over TCU

TCU has the better defense, but I really do not like how their offense operates.  Look for Houston to outplay TCU yet lose by 6 because their kicker sucks.

Maryland +4.5 over Oregon St

Seems to me the Beaves are getting too much credit for their late surge against faltering Pac 10 squads Cal and Oregon.  Not a lot separates these two so if I play I will take the points.

Wake -2.5 over Uconn

Uconn better statistically on both sides of the ball and they are ranked yet Wake is favored.  Hence, I lean Wake.

Miss St +3 over UCF

SEC school getting points from C-USA team would be a lot more suspect if it wasn't Miss St getting the points.  They should be able to load up the box and slow down Smith enough to force UCF to turn to their dismal passing game.  I also like that Smith has decided to return to school next year.  It gives O'Leary an incentive not to overuse him in this game.

Oregon +6 over So Flo

Super, super ugly.  I will play the Ducks out of obligation to my religion and I will probably lose.

Fresno St +6 over Ga Tech

Don't like the line movement especially since Ga Tech really has no business laying 6 to anyone decent on a neutral field. 

Arky +3 over Mizzou

Initially leaned Mizzou figuring Arky would be over valued after the LSU win, but with Mizzou ranked 6th and "MAD" that they aren't in the BCS this line is calling for Tigers action.  I've seen a lot of these so called slighted teams completely let down in this type of spot in the past.

Texas Tech -6 over Virginia

Will almost certainly not play this.  Line just seems to high considering how solid Virginia has been, but I really don't fancy TTech at all.

Georgia -7.5 over Hawaii

Line keeps plummeting to the point where it seems "sharps" and the public are both on Hawaii.  It will be tough for me to lay 7+ with Stafford, but Georgia has put up points against defenses far superior to the one Hawaii is briging to New Orleans.

Bowling Green +5 over Tulsa

Can Tulsa's explosive offense overcome their crappy defense and horrific kicking game??  I'm not sure, but this number is low for a third place MAC team playing a 2nd place C-USA team with a prolific offense.

Ohio St +4 over LSU

Other than the early dismantling of Va Tech there isn't a whole lot of evidence to suggest that LSU is worthy of laying points to a solid Buckeye squad.  I still have visions of Tressel panicking and going for it on 4th down in his own end last year against Florida dancing in my head.  The trust issues between Tressel and myself will keep me from getting crazy with the college finale.

Tuesday Hoops

NBA:

Bulls -2 -101 over Kobe (1x)

NCAAB:

Cleveland St +6.5 -104 over Ohio St (1x)

Georgia Tech +11 -108 over Kansas (1x)

Houston -4 -103 over Kentucky (1x)

Still No Quality Content

It is a damn good thing I am winning, otherwise this blog might be the biggest farce on the Internet.  Just no time to get anything but picks down.  However, I hope to break this trend with a pretty decent sized bowl season write up that will come out tomorrow or the next day.  Lean Bears in the Monday Night Game, but not playing it.  Going with these NBA looks instead:

Memphis +4 -102 over Golden St (1x)

Atlanta Shithawks +4 -104 over Utah Spazz (1x)

New York Pricks +2 -106 over Indiana

Sunday Night Play

Locked in a profit for the day/weekend no matter what.  Don't like the late line movement so I am going to keep it small.

Redskins +6 +102 over Eli Manning (1x)

Sunday Manuevers

UAB ended up covering and actually winning outright against KY yesterday so what looked like a lucky break actually was another bad one.  Oh well, that's where working on Saturday will get you in wagering I suppose.  At least Nebraska held on in OT to beat Oregon.  These are my Sunday afternoon NFL moves.  I have a strong lean for the night game and will add it 90 minutes before kick off if I play it.

Arizona +3.5 -104 over New Whoreleans (1x)

Miami +3 +108 over Baltiwhore (1x)

Pitt ML -160 over Jacksonville (1x)

Carolina +7 +103 over Seattle (3x)

Kansas Shitty +4 -119 over Tennessee (1x)

Oakland +10.5 -112 over Indy (2x)