For a contrarian betting on the NFL playoffs is totally bizarre. All regular season long the betting public consistently backs the same favorites week in and week out. Then the playoffs roll around and all of a sudden there are a bunch of 'good' teams getting points, and the dogs become popular. I hate laying chalk, but it is usually the norm rather than the exception come playoff time. This season is no different.
Jacksonville +13.5 at New England, Total 49.5
I have seen more than a few media types predicting a Jaguars upset, but at this point I think people are grasping at reasons for New England to lose more than anything else. I just don't see it in this case. If any team beats NE they will have done so by getting pressure on Tom Brady using primarily their front 4. Most of Jacksonville's pass rush comes from the interior of their defensive line, and with Henderson/Grady Jackson both coming into this game hurt, I doubt they will get to Brady often enough for it to matter.
Who really knows though?? Jacksonville has an efficient enough offense to keep it close, but I am not going to back an underdog that is getting as much love as Jax is. Based on consensus numbers alone you could make a case for taking NE as a fave, but I refuse to believe that there is value to be had in betting on a 16-0 juggernaut. I do hold a slight lean to the Under, but betting on NE unders so far this year has not been a profitable venture. This game has pass written all over it for me.
Slight Lean: Under 49.5
Seattle +9 at Green Bay, Total 42.5
Two Top 10 offenses that both prefer to throw the football and this total was set at 41?? Every frat guy in America is going to be taking the Over in this game. There really isn't even a case to be made for this under which is more or less why I will be making a play on it.
As far as the side goes, I lean Green Bay, but have not decided whether or not I am going to play it. I think people see Hasselbeck and Alexander getting 9 and think it is some great value. Well I've got news for you, both of those guys pretty much suck at this point in their careers. Hasselbeck can look alright if he is given time to throw, but he completely buckles in the face of a pass rush. Alexander has been a fumble and injury prone pussy who goes down at the first sign of contact ever since he signed that big deal a few years back. The Seahawks defense is underrated, but they sure play a lot better from within the confines of ultra loud Invesco Field.
As much as I hate to give the Packers and their moronic fan base validation, I think GB rolls in this one.
Strong Lean: Under 42.5
Slight Lean: Fudge Packers
San Diego +9 at Indy, Total 45
Before the playoffs began I had this one circled in red as a potential big play, but the Gates injury has clouded the picture. I do like how San Diego's defense matches up with the Indy offensive attack. They probably won't get 5 gift wrapped interceptions like they did in the first meeting, but the edge pass rush will hassle Manning all day which should at least give the Chargers trio of solid corners a fighting chance.
Still, the injury to Gates looms large. In order for the Chargers to be competitive for the full 4 quarters they need to be balanced on offense, and Gates was one the guy capable of loosening things up for LT. Without AG the Colts should be able to load up the box and put the onus on Rivers to make some plays to his WRs down field. I don't see him doing this, but I'd still take the nine with the Chargers strong defense and return game.
Slight Lean: Chargers
New York Giants +7.5 at Dallas, Total 46.5
If you happen to be out on the town and overhear someone talking about how hard it is for one NFL team to beat another 3 times in a season please kindly beat them over a head with a shovel. 17 times a team has gone into a playoff game with the chance to complete a 3 game season sweep of another team, and 11 of those 17 times they have succeeded, yet countless morons are backing the Giants on Sunday based solely on the flawed logic that it is extra hard to get that 3rd win.
I like Dallas all over the field in this game. My only concern is that Owens will try to play at less than 100% and end up hurting Dallas more than he helps them. Other than that I am completely comfortable laying a TD plus a hook against a lame yet somehow public road dog.
Strong Lean: Dallas
