The Money Line Journal

Cash to Accrual

I am switching my method for accounting results on the site from dollars to units.  This is a calculated move that I am making for the following resons:

1) Consistency - In addition to posting plays here, I also list them over at the Rudius Media message board where posting in units was the standard long before I ever arrived.  Posting plays in the same manner at both locations will lighten my workload.

2) Privacy - I am not in any way, shape, or form ashamed of my wagering habit.  However, I am still somewhat human, and I never really have gotten comfortable with the idea of having other people know exactly how much I am winning and losing day in and day out.

3) To Help Others - I feel like newer gamblers get the wrong idea when they walk in here and see me dropping nickels + dimes left and right.  It took me YEARS to get to this point, but no matter how many times I state this, some people just  do not get it.

Plays will be made on a unit scale of 1-5, with 5x plays being worth the most and 1x plays the least.  My units will be worth the same dollar amounts across all sports.  If you are confused and want to learn more about how a unit system works then read this. 

Pay Attention to Juice

I could give a laundry list of reaons as to why 99.5% of the general population loses at sports wagering, but ultimately it really boils down to one thing,  Juice, aka the bookmakers cut.  First allow me to briefly explain juice for the gentiles out there.

Wagering, like any other hobby, costs money.  Most bookmakers will charge a 10% tax per wager.  This tax is often referred to as juice or vig.  At 10% juice if you wish to make a bet to win $100, you must risk $110.  If your bet wins you get $100 and your initial stake of $110 is returned to you.  If the bet does not win, you lose your $110.  It might not sound like much, but over time it adds up to thousands and thousands of dollars.  Just to break even at standard 10% juice one must hit 52.7% of his wagers.   This is not easy to do.

In the old days there wasn't much you could do about the vig.  If you wanted to get down on a game you called your local bookie/mob boss, and you paid whatever he charged.  Offshore gaming has changed the sports wagering landscape significantly.  Exchanges and reduced juice shops have made it possible for players to pay way less than 10% per bet.  So what's the big deal??

Table 12.11 compares the results of two gamblers, Mikey B and Donnie C, over the course of 1,000 wagers.  Both Mikey and Donnie flat bet at $1,000 per game and they are both good enough that they hit 55% of their wagers (550-450). The only difference betweeen the two is that Mikey B bets at Matchbook and Donnie C bets at Sportsbook.Com.

Table 12.11

Mikey B Donnie C Average Vig: 5% Average Vig: 10% Net Gains: (550)(1,000) = $550,000 Net Gains: (550)(1,000) = $550,000 Net Losses: (450)($1,050) = $472,500 Net Losses: (450)(1,100) = $495,000 Net Profit: (550,000) - (472,500) = $77,500 Net Profit: (550,000) - (495,000) = $55,000

The table above illustrates that Mikey B will make $22,500 more than Donnie C every 1,000 wagers solely because he saves money on vig.  The further you extrapolate the data, the more staggering the savings become.

So why would Donnie C wager at Sportsbook.com with other alternatives available?? Who the fuck knows?  Probably because they advertise a shitload and have Nikki Cox as a spokesperson.  There is no good excuse for paying 10% if you choose to wager offshore.  Even with Pinnacle no longer serving the US there are still plenty of totally reputable shops offering reduced juice that will welcome your action with open arms.

I'm sure some of you are thinking to yourselves, but Money Line, I only bet $30 a game, this doesn't effect me. WRONG.  I used the 55% and $1,000 figures because they accurately represent how I handle my wagering, but the simple fact of the matter is that juice effects all bettors proportionately.  Bet size and winning % are completely irrelevant.

Per usual I could careless what anyone else does when it comes to this stuff.  It took me 3 years of wagering to even notice the cumulative result of paying full vig.  Eventually I got sick of going 3-2 yet barely showing a profit, and decided to seek alternative means of wagering.  Hopefully some of you will do the same.

Figure 12.12

Will Cost You Thousands

The Money Line Rules

I don't have a play for tonight's ever so crucial outer conference war between Navy and Pittsburgh as making a play on this game would violate Commandment #5 of the Money Line rules:

1. No More Totals

I tried giving up totals last year for Lent, but it was basketball season, and I caved after 36 hours. The problem with totals is they provide additional opportunity for me to get myself into trouble. Once I start playing them, I can't stop. I imagine it's similar to being addicted to crack cocaine. I am sure I could learn to beat them and know of plenty of others that do, but for the time being I am just saying no to totals.

2. Big Game Does Not Equal Big Play

I define a "big game" as a game that even our mothers and girlfriends are excited about (IE, Super Bowls, BCS Bowls, Playoffs, Final 4s). These big games receive the most action and thusly usually have the tightest lines. The books know it and so do I, but that hasn't stopped me from dropping some major stink bombs in borderline situations on these games over the years. Going forward, I am going to take a sedative before evaluating these contests, and if I still see an opportunity, I will take it. Otherwise, I will simply voice my opinion and leave my money out of it.

3. 2K Max (The 10% Rule)

No wager shall exceed $2,000 USD. 2K is not an arbitrary number. It is a bit less than 10% of my bankroll. Risking any more on a single play is a recipe for disaster. Even bad gamblers know this. It is common sense. Naturally this does not apply to hedging.

4. Never Hedge Without a Middle

Hedging is such a tricky concept. I have fucked it up so many times over the years that it makes me ill just thinking about it. This rule dictates that I can only hedge if it is possible for me to win my existing future bet AND the bet I am hedging said future with. This rule confuses even me, but don't worry, I plan on tackling the topic in great detail in my upcoming article "The Futures Market: 8 Years of Heartbreak" which should hit the site in early 2008.

5. Eliminate Weeknight Woes

Weekday games, be it Monday Night Football, Thursday Night ACC Telecasts, or even Tuesday Night Small Conference Shitfests have cost me thousands of dollars and hundreds of headaches over my career. From now on a simple rule of thumb will guide me past this problem. If I wouldn't play it on a Saturday afternoon, I don't play it on a Wednesday night.

6.  Maverick Meet Iceman

My days of flying by the seat of my pants are over.  In the not so glory days I used to base my evening plays off of what happened in the morning. If I was down big, I would chase with the late games. If I was up big, I'd go for the jugular with the night action. Either way it was totally illogical. I am done being erratic and unsafe. From now on all of my plays get submitted at once with no add ons or additions allowed.

7. Live Betting Does Not Exist

It just doesn't okay. I don't care if you try to tell me that two of my Top 6 books offer it on all nationally televised events, I can't see it, and I refuse to believe that which I cannot see. Live Betting is potentially more lethal than heroin. It can ruin even the most astute sports bettor. I have seen it with my own eyes and there is no place for it in my life. This includes 2nd half bets.

8. Flip Flopping is for Around the Horn Contestants

There is nothing more frustrating than leaning one way on a game all week long, changing your mind, and then subsequently losing a wager. It happened to be a few weeks ago with the South Florida/West Virgina game, and it is maddening. If I can make a case for both sides, the game automatically becomes a pass. This isn't exactly rocket science. A guy with a degree from a lower tier Big 10 school should have figured out a lot sooner really.

This blog exists to help me maximize profit, and these rules truly are for my own good, so if you see me violate one of these commandments, please call me out immediately in the comments section. Thanks in advance.

Unit System Basics

Unit System Basics

Like most gamblers I track my results using a unit system. Below is a brief synopsis of how such a system works.

What is a unit system?

A unit system is a means of measuring sports wagering returns and losses. A unit is equivalent to a dollar amount that is directly proportionate to a bettors bankroll.

How do I organize a unit system?

First you must decide how much you are going to invest in sports wagering. After that decision is made you should set your unit size = to a percentage of your bankroll. I almost always set it at exactly 1% of my bankroll. For example, if you are willing to risk $10,000 total for college hoops season than my unit size would be $100 or 1x =$100.  Thus a 1x play would = $100, a 2x play would = $200, a 4x would = $400 ad infinitum.

How do I account in units?

I've always tracked my wagers based on what I am risking rather than what I am trying to win. Let's say you risk 2x (2 units) at standard juice (-110) on a game. If you win your bet than you gain +1.8x (1.8 units), if you lose your bet than you lose -2x (-2 units).

To find out how much real money you are up or down at any point in time just multiply your net unit gain/loss by your unit size. If you are up +10x for MLB season with a unit size of $100 then you are up $1000 (10 x 100) for the season. If you had set your unit size at 1% (1x=1%) then this gain would represent a 10% R.O.I. for the season.

What is the point of using a unit system?

There are many reasons to track your results in this manner:

- Calculation via units levels the playing field and allows for meaningful comparisons between gamblers at every point on the financial spectrum. For example lets say Rico has a $20 unit size and is up $200 for a season while Chuck has a $2000 unit size and is up $6000 for the year. Well, Chuck has certainly made more money than Rico, but technically Rico is having a much better year proportionately speaking as he is up 10x to Chuck's 3x.

- Units make accounting much easier. If you bet $5 or $10 a game you won't notice as much but trust me, once you start consistently having to account for lots of zeros you'll want an arbitrary unit of measure in place of actual dollars not only for ease of calculations but also for psychological reasons. Plus converting units to dollars involves nothing more than a little simple algebra. Net gain in units multiplied by the dollar amount of unit = net gain in dollars. Not that hard folks.

- Units also offer a degree of privacy. I hate to say it but most people inherently suck. They don't recognize gambling as anything other than a dangerous vice while simultaneously being nosy. If someone asks me how much I have riding on a game it is much easier to say 3 units than it is to say $X,XXX. I'd much rather get a look of a confusion rather than some nonsensical lecture from a random idiot about my "gambling problem".

Should I adjust my unit size as the season goes on?

There is no right or wrong answer here. Having a sliding unit scale certainly makes calculations a bit more complex and tedious. I personally have always waited until the end of sporting seasons to evaluate and adjust.  For example let's say after football season my bankroll has grown from $10,000 to $12,000. In this instance I'd probably keep my unit size for basketball at 1%, but instead  of being worth $100 my unit would now equal $120 due to the increased size of my bankroll. Sort of like quarterly compounded interest, I suppose.

My unit size is smaller than the other gamblers, Does this make me less of a man?

No son, but it probably means you are poorer. In all seriousness though don't worry about how much other people are betting. Most people who claim to bet big are either lying or betting more than they can afford. If you consistently win without spending your capital gains then you will be betting large shortly anyways.

2006-2007 Year in Review

2006-2007 Year in Review

I am going to keep this short as I consider dwelling on the past to be an idiots endeavor.  2006-2007 was, in spite of many mistakes,  a banner year for my wagering career.

NFL +$8,054

Even though my NFL numbers were absolutely gaudy especially when you factor in the fluky Colts future and the contest winnings, I still will always look back on this season as a huge lost opportunity. I spent weeks 8-14 sitting in the Top 5 of the Carib contest with the $75,000 first prize right within my grasp, and I couldn't close the deal. I'm not sure if it was the fact that one of my direct competitors in the Top 5 was the guy I consider to be my mentor or simply the shear volume of prize money involved, but either way I faded down the stretch and subsequently blew a chance at an absurd score. 64% winners and an 80% return over 6 months is still pretty good though.

NCAAF -$4,512

What a disgusting number that is. What can I say though? For most of the season I was hovering right around even until I lost a few big ones down the stretch. Then I began bowl season on a 1-7 run and chose to throw up the white flag prematurely rather than battle it out. Had I hung around for the rest of bowl season I would have certainly regained about half of that deficit.  Ultimately though I forced WAY too many big plays, played too many games in general, and managed my money like a meth addict throughout most of the year. It's tough to win doing those things.

NCAAB +$2,725

College hoops was a total roller coaster ride for me. I was up huge halfway through February only to give it all back over a dreadful two week stretch that featured a handful of shit losses. Luckily I was able to get hot during Rounds 2-4 of the NCAA tourney playing everything larger than average, and that is where most of the profits came from.  I think they key to my success in college buckets both this year and in the future is to avoid making plays until after football has wound down. As much as I love the preseason NIT and the Maui Invite these early season, non conference games always seem to leave me in a hole.

NBA +$4,360

I only made 63 bets the entire NBA season and most of them were during the playoffs. This number figures to decrease next year as well since I am never playing another NBA total ever again after the Donaghy scandal. The profit really came mostly from my playoff series bets. I had Utah over Houston and Chicago over Miami in Round 1, Utah over Golden St and San Antonio over Phoenix in Round 2, and most importantly Cleveland over Detroit in the Conference Finals. It's not hard to make to make a lot of money when you go 5-0 on your big wagers over a month's time.

MLB -$1,336

I just couldn't get into bases this year. I played a bit in April, a decent amount in May, and for most of June, but I really never got much going. At one point in mid-June I was up a decent chunk of change until I went on a 16 game losing streak which put me into the red for the season. In any sport but baseball that would be a losing streak for the ages, but considering I play mostly long dogs, it's really not that mathematically unlikely. This number could change depending on what happens with the Rockies in the NL West and with the contest I am in and will be updated accordingly.

Miscellaneous +$198

With it being a non Olympic year the only random sport I dabbled in was golf and I actually came close to hitting a few enormous outrights. Ultimately though I only showed a miniscule profit, but considering that a) I don't know shit about golf and b) I only played the four majors, I am more than happy with the result.

Final Result +$8,989

When I am looking back at my results ten years from now the 2006-2007 will probably fall on the right side of the bell curve. It'd be unrealistic to expect results this good every single year. At the same time, I did this well with tons of leaks in my approach that are easily repairable, so who really knows. I definitely have a nice margin for error heading into 2007-2008, not that I plan on using it.

Wagering Terminology

Wagering Terminology

I use these terms all of the time in my writing so if you want any clue as to what is going on, Study Up.

Action - Having money on a game.

ATS - Short for against the spread. You will often see handicappers refer to at team's record ATS.

Buying the Hook - Buying an extra half point on a spread. If a team is a +6.5 point underdog some books will allow you to "buy the hook" up to +7.  Of course they charge you a significant amount of juice to do this. I never, ever buy hooks.

Chalk - The favorite in the game, the team laying points on the spread.

Cover - A point spread victory. If I have Chicago +5 points and they lose 20-17, my bet still covers the spread, and I win even though Chicago technically lost.

Dime - Slang for a $1000 wager. People who bet this amount often are referred to as 'dime players'.

Dog - The team that is expected to lose a sporting event, the team getting points on the spread. See underdog.

Down On - Being down on something means you have action on that thing. I am down on Tennessee to win the 07-08 NCAA Mens Basketball National Title.

Even Money - A rare bet where juice is not involved. With even money bets you risk 1 to win 1.

Fade - To bet against something or someone.

Favorite - The team that is expected to win a sporting event, the team laying points. See Chalk.

Futures - Bets in advance on long term events such as who will the win the Super Bowl or World Series.

Handicapper - Someone who breaks down ATS betting options using statistics, trends, and models with the hopes of finding an edge. Even though I bet on sports everyday, I do not fancy myself a handicapper.

Handicapping - Attempting to predict the outcome of a game, final score and all.

Hedging - Protecting an existing bet with a second bet, Suppose you have a futures' bet on Seattle to win the Super Bowl, if they get to the Super Bowl then you could bet on their opponent and ensure a profit. Bets on individual games can also be hedged either with a 2nd half bet or via live betting. This is an advanced technique.

Hook - A half of a point on a betting line.

Juice - The reason Las Vegas hotels are so immaculate, this is the percentage of your wager that the house (the book) automatically takes. For instance if you bet $100 on a game at 10% juice (-110) and your bet wins, then you get paid $90 (plus you get your initial initial stake back).

Laying the Points - Betting on the favorite and giving up the points (according to the spread). If Cleveland is favored by 5 points than they must win the game by more than 5 points for people betting on them to win.

Line - The current odds or point spread for a game. The line for Ohio St vs Florida in the National Title game is currently Ohio St -8 over Florida.

Linesmaker - The person who is responsible for setting the spreads for every sporting event.

Middle - Sometimes when you hedge a bet with a 2nd half bet you can win both your original bet and the second half bet. This is called hitting the middle. This is tough to do.

Money Line - A bet on the outright result of a sporting event. No point spreads involved. With money line odds, the favorite might be -150 and the underdog +140.  If you bet the favorite you must bet $150 to win $100. If you bet the underdog you must wager $100 to win $140.

Nickel - A $500 sports wager.

Off the board - Usually listed as OTB at most books. You'll see this when a sports book temporarily removes a line from play in order to reevaluate their number. An injury is usually responsible for a game going OTB.

Opening Line - The original line that is posted for every sporting event.

Outright - An outright victory is when a team wins the actual sporting event itself without help from a point spread. Usually this term is used when discussing underdogs

Over - When the total points scored by both teams in a game is more than the set total for that game then the game has gone 'over'.

Parlay - If you parlay two or more bets than every single bet you parlay must win in order for you to get paid. I haven't played a parlay in years and likely never will again.

Pick Em - When neither team is favored in a game it is consider a pick em contest. These are becoming more and more rare for whatever reason.

Point Spread - A number set by the sports books in an attempt to create equal action on both sides of a game.

Price - A fancy term for the odds or point spread on a betting option.

Push - A gaming tie. If Indy is -3 to win against Cincy and Indy wins the game 20-17 then the game pushes and both Indy and Cincinnati bettors are returned their initial stakes.

Sharp - Most sports books define a sharp player as someone who consistently makes money wagering on sports.

Side - A bet on either the under dog or the favorite with or against the spread.

Steam - A very rapid shift in a sports betting line in one direction.

Taking the Points - Betting on the underdog. If you bet on San Diego as a 4 point underdog then you can win your bet if San Diego wins the game outright or loses the game by less than 4 points.

Teaser - Similar to a parlay only the books give you six extra points per side. I don't waste my time with these either.

Totals Wager - A bet on the amount both teams will combine to score in a game. You can either bet under or over a total.

Tout - Someone who sells sports gambling advice. 99.9% of these guys are nothing more than used car salesman. Never in my life will I purchase sports picks.

Under - The opposite of an over. If the total on a SD/IND football game is 48, you would take the under if you think both teams will combine to score less than 48 points.

Underdog - The team that is supposed to lose a sporting event, the team getting points against the spread.

Wager - Betting money on a sporting event