The Money Line Journal

Making History

Last night the Saint Louis Billikens set a new D-1 record for fewest points scored in a game.

It should surprise no one that they were one of 3 teams I considered betting on last night.  I ended up only playing Cal, but SLU and the Utah Jazz were my other two leans.  I almost wish I had pulled the trigger on SLU, even though I would have lost, it would have been nice to be a part of history with them.

Some interesting stats from the game:

- The Billikens shot 7-48 (14.6%) from the field

- They were 1-19 (5.2%) from 3 point range

- There was a 17:40 stretch where Saint Lou did not score a single bucket.

- Oh yea, I almost forgot, they only scored 20 points in 40 minutes of basketball.

How Rick Majerus did not suffer a heart attack during this clunker I do not know.

Confounded

Normally I'd be in a decent mood coming off a 3-1 +3x night, but the manner in which Depaul lost yesterday has left me aghast.  I can handle losing, and I can even tolerate the inevitable downswings that come in this business, but the way I have been losing these college hoops plays has been torture.  Let's examine:

- Depaul +4 over Vanderbilt,  Depaul lead by 18 with 14 to play, 7 with 1 minute to play, only to miss four straight FT's and lose by 6 in OT.

- Wright St +2.5 over Bradley,  Wrong St lead most of the first half, virtually all of the second half, up 9 with 7 minutes to pay, 4 with 30 seconds to play, and they allow Bradley to force OT where the Braves win by 7.  Pretty tame compared to most of this list.

- Bradley +5 over Michigan St, Bradley was winning and outplaying Michigan St for the entire game until they started to  take bad shots in the final three minutes, and they lose by 5.  I was actually lucky to get a push out of this collapse.

- Bama +7.5 over G'Town,  Bama winning or within a bucket throughout the first 37 minutes of the game, and somehow they manage to lose by 10.  I'm not quite sure how it happened because I was too busy watching....

- Duquense +4.5 over Pitt,  A different kind of pain.  Duquense concedes a 14-0 Pitt run to begin the game, works their way back into it multipe times, get within 1 with 90 seconds left, and end up losing by 5.  The hilarious part of this loss was that the line movement from 5.5 to 4.5 made this a double for me.  Fucked by the very movement that sucked me in for more.  I guess that portion is on me. 

However none of these even come close to....

Baylor +2.5 over Washington St,  This was my only 3 unit college hoops play of the season so far.  Baylor was absolutely ass hammering Wazzu all over the floor and it was showing up on the scoreboard as they lead by DD virtually the entire way before collapsing in the final 3 minutes. and losing by 3.  I could write pages on this game, but my stomach is already starting to churn at the mere thought of it so I am going to try and let it go.

For me to be down 'only' 12 units after all of this is actually downright remarkable.  I guess in the long run these things will even out, but if one of these losses sends me on a homicidal multi state killing spree that ends in me taking my own life then what good does the long run do me or my potential victims??

Absolutely Fucking Laughable

I've suffered through a handful of painfully close losses the last two weeks, but the Michigan St defeat last night really takes the cake.  Sparty was winning outright LITERALLY the entire way until Cameroon national and owner of a broken jump shot, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, nailed an open corner three to give UCLA a 3 point lead with 28 seconds left.  Naturally, Drew Neitzel, one of the best shooters in the country followed this make with an air ball 3 of his own, and two Josh Shipp FT's later I lose by one fucking point.  Welcome to wagering on college hoops.

After much thought and deliberation, this has NOTHING to do with the aforementioned loss by the way, I am going to make some major changes with regards to how I handle my wagers and this blog.  In terms of monetary gain the last 2+ months have vastly exceeded expectations.  I mean, how many people can make over 11K in less than 3 months from their hobbies??

However, at the same time not many people lose sleep, sanity, and suffer a decrease in quality of life from their hobbies either, and that is what I have been experiencing for the last month or so.  In the past I probably would have ignored the warning signs, popped a couple Lunesta, and kept trudging forward, but I'm too smart for that at this point in my life.  Most gamblers don't make adjustments until they are deep in the hole or flat broke.  That just isn't my style, I am always willing to analyze and adjust if it will improve my situation.  Changes are as follows:

- On most days there will be two posts instead of the customary one.  I feel like I have been rushing my selections to get funny posts up and vice versa.  This adjustment needs no explanation.  You will see exactly what I am talking about in the coming days.

- I have steepened my play selection criteria and thusly will be placing fewer wagers.  I am doing this in an effort to increase profitability while simultaneously reducing stress.  I have made way too many border line moves this season, and quite frankly said border line plays are the ones that drive me up the wall the most.  As mad as that Michigan St loss last night made me, it was a legit move and I don't beat myself up too much over those.   If I am going to go broke, I want to go broke making strong moves, not playing Monmouth on a Monday afternoon in mid-November.

- I am going to give flat betting a try indefinitely.  At the moment I just don't trust myself to keep Money Line reigned in.  The recent Denver MNF play is a perfect example of this.  Denver wasn't even one of my 5 selections for Carib's NFL contest yet come Monday it was in a tie for my biggest play of the week.  This makes no sense, and the fact that it won doesn't make the situation any better.  For now bet sizes will be $1,000 for football and $600 for hoops.  I will reevaluate this policy in a couple of months. 

- To make up for the diminishing quantity of selections, I am going to start posting recommendations for the "bigger" contests that I am not playing personally.  Naturally, you are welcome to follow these if you please, and I will keep a record on them for shits and giggles, but I honestly couldn't careless if I go 40-123 on my recommendations so long as my actual plays are still hitting.  Don't get me wrong, I won't intentionally sandbag you with bad info, and I won't offer an opinion if I don't have one, it's just that if I am not invested personally in a game, I couldn't careless how it turns out.

That's it.  These changes really aren't that significant.  Hopefully they manage to make an impact on my bottom line/stress disorder.  I will be making another post early Wednesday evening that will contain selections for Black Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

Quite The Push

Last night's game was absolutely absurd.  I am pretty sure it was the first time a "sidekick" cost me a win.  I'd talk more about it, but I am not a good enough writer to do a game like that justice through words.  I am drained just from having suffered through it.  No plays what so ever tonight.  Simply the calm before this Saturday's storm.

Fuck You Sparty

Sometimes the difference between a break even weekend and a losing one comes down to one shitty, inexplicable loss.  This weekend that loss was given to me by Michigan St.  Just disgusting on so many different levels.  How you only rush 3 and still end up with single coverage on Mario Manningham in a  surefire passing situation is beyond me.

I really don't know what to make of this season so far.  7  out of 10 losing weekends and a meager 52.25% winning percentage across all sports is not what I am looking for.  At the same time I am up $6700 two months into the year which isn't exactly small potatoes.  Reduced juice and a newfound sense of discipline have definitely helped my cause. 

Next weekend will be crucial.  There are a bunch of games that at first glance shape up as above average to very large plays.  My profits have shrunk the last three weeks, but that doesn't mean I won't let fly if the situation calls for it. 

I am not playing the game tonight.   Gun to my head I would lay the points with the Steelers.  Back tomorrow with some NBA looks and possibly a play on the MAC Tuesday Night Degenerate Special.

Volatility Anyone??

If you ever hear a sports bettor talk about how he wins every day, or every weekend, or every month ad infinitum there are two possibilites.  You are either talking to a GOD or a liar.

It is IMPOSSIBLE to constantly win over the short run in this business.  There is just too much luck, variance, and bad officiating to overcome.  It always amuses me how the touts proudly trumpet their short term luck.  I mean who really cares.  I have lost money 6 out of 9 weekends so far this football season, and I am still up 8K for the year as I type this.  The graph below illustartes just how volatile the past 9 weeks have been for me:

Express Elevator to Hell, Going Down

My 2007 football season reads like a theme park attraction, and anyone who has ever been to Six Flags knows what direction that roller coaster is headed next. It's inevitable really.  I just hope the angle of descent isn't so steep that I vomit all over the guy in front of me.

Anyways, I just thought I'd share that.  Not exactly ground breaking stuff.  Anyone who has been around the block in this business knows how up and down it can be.  I did make a few meaningful observations in reviewing my numbers, but I am going to keep those to myself for now.  If you pay attention closely enough you will notice a slight adjustment in how I handle my wagers. 

Pacers +2.5 -105 over Washington Wiz (Risking $630 to win $600)

76ers +7 +105 over Toronto Raptors (Risking $380 to win $400)

If basketball season was in full force I'd be on the Pacers bigger and would also be playing Memphis and New Jersey

The Sports Guys Friday NFL Picks Two Days Early

Rather than posting my standard NFL weekly ATS opinions, I am instead going to try and forecast two days in advance the Week 8 selections and write ups of ESPN.com's Bill Simmons.  This is no small task.  Getting inside the head of a guy whose 2006 selections were nearly better than that of his own wife will not be easy, but I am going to give it a shot nevertheless.

Pittsburgh -4 over Cincinnati

I loved the email I got during last Sunday nights game from Vinnie in Hoboken,  New Jersey. ("Hey Yo, Bill, Is it just me or is Mike Tomlin a dead ringer for Omar Epps?")

Couldn't agree more Vinnie.  In fact when The Program 2 goes straight to DVD in a couple of years and Omar Epps declines to reprise his role as Darnell Jefferson to instead focus on a pilot for the WB,  Mike Tomlin has to be the next guy the producers call.  (Insert complimentary rant about how good of a job Mike Tomlin is doing with the team to cover up obvious New England born racism)

Buffalo +3 over New York Jets

Wait, wait, the Jets are favored?? Against another NFL team??  There is no way I take the Jets here since I blindly hate Eric Mangini because Bill Belichick also hates Eric Mangini for succeeding as an NFL coach quicker than he was able to.  Besides, I need more Trent Edwards in my life.

Cleveland -3 over St. Louis

The 2007 St Louis Rams have to be responsible for more fantasy football related suicides than the rest of the teams in the league combined.  Good news for Bulger, Jackson, and Holt owners though.  Help is on the way. The Rams have a bye in Week 9. Zing.  On a more serious note  3 points is not nearly enough for an 0-7 Rams team going against surprising Cleveland.  They are only one game behind the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC North.  Just sayin....

Chicago -5 over Detroit

Anyone else notice that Rex Grossman was no where to be seen when Kyle Orton, Brian Griese, and the rest of the Bears were celebrating after the game winning drive.  It's almost as if Chicago is trying to deny he ever existed in the first place.  It's working.  Not even God's team can get lucky two weeks in a row.  As long as Rod Marinelli doesn't hire (insert random 80's movie bully here) to take out Devin Hester's knee in the semi-finals of the All Valley Karate tournament the Bears will be just fine.   

Carolina +6.5 over Indy

Peyton Manning getting less than a touchdown against David Carr.  This is definitely this week's "Too Easy Game".  Plus Indy will be looking ahead to New England next week so I am definitely taking Carolina even though I will ignore the very same angle later in this column.

New York Giants -10 over Miami (Wembley Stadium)

How ironic is it that in the first ever NFL regular season game played outside of North America the Dolphins will feature a starting QB with loads of experience playing in Europe.   Still, as I mentioned in last week's column, the Giants are now officially a Ewing-Theory team and that certainly means that they will cover this spread.

Tennessee -7 over Oakland

The Kerry Collins comeback tour has officially begun and quite frankly I am psyched about it. (Insert not so thinly veiled Kerry Collins drunk driving joke).  Besides, was Lane Kiffin even born the last time Kerry Collins won a road start in the NFL?  Didn't think so.  I'll take the team with the coach who has already gone through puberty thank you very much.

Minnesota +1 over Philadelphia

Jimmy from my West Coast fantasy league offered me Larry Johnson, Terrell Owens, his first born son, a brand new BMW 1 series, and $10,000 cash for Adrian Peterson and I said no.  Adrian Peterson!!!! Wow!!!!  In fact Adrian Peterson on my west coast fantasy team is all the reason I need to drop a bomb on the Vikings on Sunday, other relevant factors be damned.

Houston +10 over San Diego

As my cousin Sal put it, Can you really lay 10 points of chalk with a home team whose stadium might burn down before kick off?  Couldn't agree more and  is it just me or did anyone else notice that the fires started getting out of hand roughly around the same time that the Chargers fleeced* the Dolphins in the Chris Chambers trade.  (More on this later)

*Okay I am breaking character for a minute.  The Dolphins did not get ripped off in this trade.  Not even close. They dumped an over paid, overrated wide out for a 2nd round draft choice in a year where they were going no where anyways.  Now they have an extra pick next year and can play their young receivers. What's the problem??

New Orleans -3 over San Francisco

We are only two more 24 carry 63 yard 0 TD games away from Frank Gore pulling a Last Boy Scout on Trent Dilfer and the 49ers offensive line.  Frankly, I'm excited about it.

Tampa Bay -4 over Jacksonville

My buddy House said it best during our weekly Sunday night NFL discussion "Are you really ready to back Quinn Gray making his first start on the road against a Tampa Bay team that just spent all week getting verbally dismantled by Jon Gruden and Monte Kiffin?"  Yea, me neither.

Green Bay +3 over Denver

I would have picked Denver here, but I can't go against Brett Favre on Monday night.  So what if he is only 17-15 outright all time for his career on MNF.  You just don't go against Brett Favre on MNF.  Don't do it. Don't. I am warning you. DO NOT BET AGAINST A FUTRE HOF QB ON MNF. EVER. It is the most dangerous gambling angle of them all.

AND Finally

New England -16.5 over Washington

At this point it isn't even a question of New England being the best NFL team of all time.  That has been definitively answered over the course of the first seven weeks of the season with blow out wins over the league's elite (Buffalo, New York, Miami, and Cleveland just to name a few)

We have officially reached some next level crap (can't say shit I work for ESPN remember)  with the 2007 Patriots.   I mean if I started calling Bill Belichick God, Tom Brady Jesus, and Randy Moss John the Baptist, would it even be that big of a stretch?? The guys are averaging 40PPG in the NFL for Bradyssake.  This theory even explains the wild fires in Southern California.  It is simply Old Testament Belichick punishing the Chargers/Dolphins for collaborating on a blatantly unfair trade with the hopes of eventually derailing the Pats perfect season in the playoffs. When Miami gets destroyed during hurricane season it will all make sense.

Anyways, Las Vegas is totally screwed.  They are either stupid or crazy.  This will probably be the end of sports betting as we know it. They just can't set the lines high enough for this team.  If gambling were legal, I would have already rolled over my daughter's college fund 7 times on the Pats and would continue to do so until the sports books finally waived the white flag and stopped setting lines for Patriots games. 

I've already written three times as much about the Pats game as I did for any other game this week, so I'll end with an email from Danny in Berkshire, MA. ("Bill, I just jerked it to the You Tube video of the Randy Moss shoulder catch. Twice.")

Yup, these are my readers.

My actual, early NFL ATS opinions for this week are: St. Louis, Detroit, Carolina, Miami, Oakland, Philly, Cincy, Jets, Houston, Tampa Bay, San Fran, Washington, and Denver. 

That's All I Get For 1.3 Million?

Quinn Gray was 9/24 for 56 yards and 2Ints in relief of David Garrard last night.  Complete ineptitude at the small price of 1.3 million dollars a season.  Backup quarterback work is great if you can find it.

NCAAF: 5-5, -$2,341 NFL: 3-3, $-386 Losses enlarged to emphasize that I do not win every weekend.

NFL Weekly opinion column will be posted manana.

Week In Review

This first installment of the Week In Review will cetainly have a more positive tone than future editions as I am coming off without question the biggest five day run of my entire sports wagering career. I won't elaborate any further so as not to jinx myself.  The site wasn't functional enough yet for me to post this past weekend's selections on time, but you can view them here. On to the observations:

• Trent Edwards, Cleo Lemon, David Carr, Gus Frerotte, David Garrard, Trent Dilfer, and Brian Griese. Those are the names of the NFL quarterbacks who covered spreads for me this weekend. Not exactly a whos who of the guys you'd expect to find in Maui for the Pro Bowl.
• After catching virtually zero breaks in all of September, I received gifts a plenty on Sunday. First, the Rams scored a late, meaningless touchdown plus a 2 point conversion to earn me a cover by the hook. Then in the late nigt game the Packers defecated on themselves and their fans when they handed the Bears the game with four ludicrous turnovers. Thanks Brett and James!!
• I cannot believe how bad Louisville is this year. I knew their defense would miss Okoye and the other departures, but they are so horrible on that side of the ball. The ease with which MTSU and Utah moved the ball on them was staggering. Things are so bad that they are 10 point dogs heading to Cincy on Saturday. Nobody could have predicted that spread two months ago.
• Having money on Todd Reesing (Kansas) and Juice Williams (Illinois) simultaneously on Saturday morning was almost too much to take. I ended up winning both bets, but I still feel like I lost. Both of those guys are pick sixes waiting to happen. I know Mangino is really busy dominating 8 squares a day, but he really should spend some time teaching Todd Reesing the concept of touch. KU might be good enough to win the Big 12 North if he figures it out.
• Is New England going to go 16-0 ATS the spread this year? After last Sunday's absurd cover on the late fumble six I am convinced something is up. Thank God my money wasn't tied up on that bullshit.
• Was Pete Carroll fast asleep at the wheel on Saturday night? I only caught the final 43 seconds of Stanford's upset win over the mighty Trojans, so I am not really sure how it went down, but how on Earth do you lose at home as a 41 point favorite? Historically this wasn't as big of an upset as Appalachian St/Michigan was, but according to the oddsmakers it was less probable.

2006-2007 Year in Review

2006-2007 Year in Review

I am going to keep this short as I consider dwelling on the past to be an idiots endeavor.  2006-2007 was, in spite of many mistakes,  a banner year for my wagering career.

NFL +$8,054

Even though my NFL numbers were absolutely gaudy especially when you factor in the fluky Colts future and the contest winnings, I still will always look back on this season as a huge lost opportunity. I spent weeks 8-14 sitting in the Top 5 of the Carib contest with the $75,000 first prize right within my grasp, and I couldn't close the deal. I'm not sure if it was the fact that one of my direct competitors in the Top 5 was the guy I consider to be my mentor or simply the shear volume of prize money involved, but either way I faded down the stretch and subsequently blew a chance at an absurd score. 64% winners and an 80% return over 6 months is still pretty good though.

NCAAF -$4,512

What a disgusting number that is. What can I say though? For most of the season I was hovering right around even until I lost a few big ones down the stretch. Then I began bowl season on a 1-7 run and chose to throw up the white flag prematurely rather than battle it out. Had I hung around for the rest of bowl season I would have certainly regained about half of that deficit.  Ultimately though I forced WAY too many big plays, played too many games in general, and managed my money like a meth addict throughout most of the year. It's tough to win doing those things.

NCAAB +$2,725

College hoops was a total roller coaster ride for me. I was up huge halfway through February only to give it all back over a dreadful two week stretch that featured a handful of shit losses. Luckily I was able to get hot during Rounds 2-4 of the NCAA tourney playing everything larger than average, and that is where most of the profits came from.  I think they key to my success in college buckets both this year and in the future is to avoid making plays until after football has wound down. As much as I love the preseason NIT and the Maui Invite these early season, non conference games always seem to leave me in a hole.

NBA +$4,360

I only made 63 bets the entire NBA season and most of them were during the playoffs. This number figures to decrease next year as well since I am never playing another NBA total ever again after the Donaghy scandal. The profit really came mostly from my playoff series bets. I had Utah over Houston and Chicago over Miami in Round 1, Utah over Golden St and San Antonio over Phoenix in Round 2, and most importantly Cleveland over Detroit in the Conference Finals. It's not hard to make to make a lot of money when you go 5-0 on your big wagers over a month's time.

MLB -$1,336

I just couldn't get into bases this year. I played a bit in April, a decent amount in May, and for most of June, but I really never got much going. At one point in mid-June I was up a decent chunk of change until I went on a 16 game losing streak which put me into the red for the season. In any sport but baseball that would be a losing streak for the ages, but considering I play mostly long dogs, it's really not that mathematically unlikely. This number could change depending on what happens with the Rockies in the NL West and with the contest I am in and will be updated accordingly.

Miscellaneous +$198

With it being a non Olympic year the only random sport I dabbled in was golf and I actually came close to hitting a few enormous outrights. Ultimately though I only showed a miniscule profit, but considering that a) I don't know shit about golf and b) I only played the four majors, I am more than happy with the result.

Final Result +$8,989

When I am looking back at my results ten years from now the 2006-2007 will probably fall on the right side of the bell curve. It'd be unrealistic to expect results this good every single year. At the same time, I did this well with tons of leaks in my approach that are easily repairable, so who really knows. I definitely have a nice margin for error heading into 2007-2008, not that I plan on using it.